- USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8845 in Monday’s early European session, losing 0.17% on the day.
- Economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc.
- The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday.
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Monday. US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy and a series of weak US economic data weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Later on Monday, the US February Retail Sales data will be published.
Optimism that the Trump administration would boost the economy turned into concerns that his trade policies might spark a recession. Data released on Friday indicated that the US Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March, but inflation expectations rose amid concerns about the impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have sparked a global trade war.
The US defense secretary said on Sunday that the United States will continue attacking Yemen’s Houthis until they stop attacks on shipping as the Iran-aligned group threatened to escalate in response to deadly US strikes the day before.
The escalating trade war between the US and many of its major trading partners, fears about the impact on economies across the world and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the CHF, a safe-haven currency and act as a headwind for the pair.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate steady at its March meeting on Wednesday. Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized that they’re taking a wait-and-see approach to interest rates since so many economic policies are up in the air. Investors have priced in two quarter-point rate cuts this year starting in June or July, with a high likelihood of a third by year-end. However, any surprise hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers could lift the Greenback in the near term.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
