- USD/CAD revisits 1.3650 as the Canadian Dollar weakens amid uncertainty ahead of the employment data for September.
- The BoC is expected to extend its rate-cut cycle in November.
- Fed Kugler sees more rate cuts as appropriate.
The USD/CAD pair recaptures a seven-week high near 1.3650 in Tuesday’s European session. The Loonie asset strengthens amid weakness across the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) performance ahead of Canada’s Employment data for September, which will be published on Friday.
The Canadian job report is expected to show that the economy added 28K workers, higher than 22.1K in August. In the same period, economists expect the Unemployment Rate to have risen further to 6.7%. Signs of further deterioration in labor market conditions would prompt speculation for more Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cuts. This year, the BoC has already reduced its interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) to 4.25% as inflation has returned to the bank’s target of 2% and the economic outlook is vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its upside as investors shift focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to gains near 102.50.
The US inflation data is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. Currently, financial market participants expect the Fed to reduce its key borrowing rates again in November but with a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points (bps).
In Tuesday’s late Asian session, the comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that the policymaker sees more rate cuts as appropriate if price pressures continue to decline as expected.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
