- The US Dollar slides in Monday’s Asian session to broadly recover later in the European start.
- Traders are trying to keep their powder dry for the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar Index briefly dips to 105.47 before erasing nearly the whole move.
The US Dollar (USD) took it on the chin on Monday during the Asia-Pacific trading session. Although still unconfirmed, markets are speculating over the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) or its Ministry of Finance intervened in the forex market to support a rapidly weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pair slid lower from 160.17 to 154.50, a more than 3.50% appreciation of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. This sharp move had a ripple effect through the forex markets and saw the Greenback trading weaker across the board.
On the economic data front, Monday presents a very calm start to the week ahead of the main event on Wednesday: the US Federal Reserve (Fed) convening for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The main element will be how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell perceives the current situation after some disappointing US economic data combined with signs of persisting price pressures.
Daily digest market movers: Room for reversal
- Overnight, the Ministry of Finance from Japan or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) possibly intervened in the Japanese Yen, although there isn’t any official word about it. The move comes after the USD/JPY pair hit 160.00 in early trading on Monday. The BoJ intervenes by strengthening its currency in order to avoid having imported inflation from a weak currency, which could trigger more demand from abroad for goods produced locally.
- At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April will be released. The previous print was -14.4.
- The US Treasury will allocate a 3-month and a 6-month bill around 15:30 GMT.
- Equities are overall in the green on Monday, cheering the weaker Greenback. Usually, when equities are underperforming, the US Dollar is stronger as an increase of safe haven demand.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool suggests an 88.5% probability that June will still see no change to the Federal Reserve’s feds fund rate. Odds of a rate cut in July are out of the cards, while for September the tool shows a 43.6% chance that rates will be lower than current levels.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.64% and keeps lingering around this level.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not over yet
The US Dollar Index (DXY) got trashed on Monday after the Japanese Yen rattled markets by strengthening substantially. Add in there the turning sentiment in US data since last week, with Gross Domestic Product and the Purchasing Managers Indices starting to flirt with contraction, that US exceptionalism looks bleak. The US economy is not in stagflation yet, though the window for the Fed to cut interest rates is starting to close rapidly for this year.
On the upside, 105.88 (a pivotal level since March 2023) needs to be recovered again before targeting the April 16 high at 106.52. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.
On the downside, 105.12 and 104.60 should act as support ahead of the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.40 and 104.10, respectively. If those levels are unable to hold, the 100-day SMA near 103.75 is the next best candidate.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
