- US Dollar, down 0.80% last week, now at lowest level since mid-June.
- Anticipation builds with the upcoming release of the June inflation figures and Fed talks.
- Market is pricing in less than 10% odds of a cut in July and around 80% in September.
The US Dollar continues to struggle amid signs of disinflation in the US economy, fostering confidence in a potential September rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) among market participants. This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other governors’ words might bail out the USD and limit the losses if they remain cautious.
Despite the trailing softness in the US indicators, Fed officials are still reluctant to embrace cuts, opting to remain data-dependent and might continue asking for patience.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar continues soft ahead of CPI and Powell’s testimony
- Among the most noteworthy events of the week are Chairman Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, multiple Fed members speaking, and the release of inflation data for June.
- On Thursday, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have dropped two ticks to 3.1% YoY, while the core figure is expected to remain steady at 3.4% YoY.
- As for now, the market predicts less than a 10% chance of a rate cut at the July 31 meeting, with the odds shooting to around 80% for September.
DXY technical outlook: DXY’s struggle persists as it resides below 20-day SMA
Following the DXY’s slip below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and shrinking by 0.80% last week, the technical outlook has shifted for the worst. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have slumped into negative territory.
Meanwhile, the 104.70 zone, marked by the 200-day SMA, continues to provide strong support. If the selling pressure continues, the 104.50 and 104.30 areas could potentially put a stop to further losses.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
