- The US Dollar recovers against most major peers in the G10 space on Thursday.
- US President Trump says he is not longer targeting the Fed, rather the US 10-year yield.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) pops above 108.00 with still a long road ahead to get back to 109.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, pops higher ahead of the United States (US) trading session on Thursday, trading slightly above 108.00 at the time of writing. The move comes after comments from US President Donald Trump revealing his intentions to take over Gaza and reach a nuclear deal with Iran. Besides that, a plan to end the war in Ukraine will probably be put on the table either this or next week by the Trump administration as well.
On the economic data front, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sparked some support in US yields. Bessent said that the Trump administration wants to bring down 10-year Treasury yields, not the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) benchmark short-term interest rate, Bloomberg reports. For this Thursday, the weekly US Jobless Claims are due, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls print.
Daily digest market movers: Easing ahead
- The Bank of England (BoE) has released its monetary policy decision. As expected a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut was applied to 4.50% from 4.75%. The vote split was 7 in favor for a 25 basis point rate cut against 2 votes for a 50 basis points rate cut.
- The US Challenger Job Cuts for January is ticking up further to already 49,795 layoffs with the previous number at 38,792.
- Fast forward to 13:30 GMT, the US Jobless Claims are due for the week ending January 31.
- Initial Claims are expected to head to 213,000 from 207,000 last week.
- Continuing Claims are set to jump to 1.87 million from 1.858 million.
- At 19:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller participates in a discussion on the future payments at the GeoEconomics Center, hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington D.C.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is set to speak as well at 20:30 GMT.
- At 22:10 GMT, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks on a panel discussion titled “Future Challenges for Monetary Policy in the Americas” at an event in Mexico City.
- Equities are catching a breather on the back of the soothing comments from US President Donald Trump. Across the board, from China over Europe to US Futures, are in the green.
- The CME FedWatch tool projects an 85.5% chance of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the next meeting on March 19.
- The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.44%, recovering from its fresh yearly low at 4.40% printed on Wednesday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Time for some relief thanks to President Trump
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is finally breathing a sigh of relief, bouncing off from some technical levels in several major crosses against the US Dollar. Comments from US President Donald Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at least helped to trigger a slight turnaround in the DXY after its past three-day decline. Meanwhile, pressure will build up in the runup to the Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which will be released on Friday.
On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) was briefly surpassed but did not hold on Monday. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high).
On the downside, the October 3, 2023, high at 107.35 has withstood the recent selling pressure. For now, that level still looks to be holding, though watch out for the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which still has some room for the downside. Hence, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high) or even 105.90 (resistance in June 2024 and 100-day Simple Moving Average) as better support levels.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
