- US Dollar DXY experiences a restricted gain as falling US Treasury yields may pose challenges during the session.
- US political changes continue to influence, and core PCE to be on focus next week.
- Fed officials maintain their data-dependent stance, keeping markets on their toes.
On Tuesday, the US Dollar measured by the DXY, witnessed a slight rise, albeit falling US Treasury yields are expected to pose a significant challenge for the rest of the session. This comes amidst expected shifts in financial markets due to new hints about economic plans from former President Donald Trump after Joe Biden’s exit. The focus is still on high-tier data due this week.
Given signs of disinflation in the US, markets express optimism over potential rate adjustments in September. Even with these shifts on the horizon, Federal Reserve officials have reiterated their cautious approach toward deciding on rate changes, hence keeping the markets on their toes. Major indicators to watch out for over the week include Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 revisions.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar mildly up as focus shifts to PCE
- Mid-tier housing data came in lower than expected with Existing Home Sales posting a higher-than-expected monthly drop in June but didn’t trigger major movements on the USD.
- Weak Richmond Fed manufacturing index didn’t stop the USD bulls from advancing.
- On Friday, forecasts placed the core PCE at a 0.16% MoM increase and the spending is projected at a 0.3% MoM increase.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a highly probable rate cut in September, although GDP and PCE data are set to determine the week’s dynamics for the USD.
- US Treasury yields are down with the 2,5 and 10-year rates at 4.51%, 4.16% and 4.23%.
DXY Technical outlook: A slight bullish spree, yet bearish signs linger
Despite the current uplift above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the DXY index still carries a neutral to bearish outlook. Bearish signals resurface as the DXY index’s indicators are still largely in the negative zone, while a looming bearish crossover between the 20 and 100-day SMAs is evident around the 104.80 area. This, if completed, could give substantial momentum to the sellers.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
