- The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY in June, at a softer pace than May’s 3.3% increase.
- Annual core CPI inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.4%.
- The inflation data could confirm or deny a Fed rate cut in September and drive the US Dollar valuation.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the United States (US) for June on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
The US Dollar (USD) braces for intense volatility, as any surprises from the US inflation report could significantly impact the market’s pricing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations in September.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
Inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.1% in June, down from the 3.3% rise reported in May. The core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen holding steady at 3.4% in the same period.
Meanwhile, the US CPI is set to rise 0.1% MoM in June after staying unchanged in May. Finally, the monthly core CPI inflation is forecast to rise 0.2% to match the previous increase.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and testified before US Congress earlier in the week. In his prepared remarks, Powell reiterated that it will not be appropriate to cut the policy rate until they gain greater confidence in inflation heading sustainably toward 2%. When asked about the latest developments in the jobs market, “the most recent labor market data sent a pretty clear signal that the labor market has cooled considerably,” he noted. In the end, his remarks failed to move the needle with respect to market pricing of a Fed rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September stands at around 26%, virtually unchanged from where it stood before this event.
Previewing the June inflation data, “we expect the June CPI report to show that core prices remained largely under control after posting a surprisingly soft 0.16% gain in May,” said TD Securities analysts in a weekly report.
“Headline inflation likely printed flat m/m again (-0.01%) as energy prices continue to provide large relief. Note that our unrounded core CPI forecast at 0.18% m/m suggests larger risks for another dovish surprise to a rounded 0.1% increase,” analysts added.
How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?
Investors remain optimistic about a Fed rate cut in September, but the market positioning suggests they are not fully convinced yet. Hence, a smaller-than-forecast increase in the monthly core CPI, a reading of 0.1% or smaller, could confirm a policy pivot in September. In this scenario, the US Dollar could come under selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the other hand, an increase of 0.3% or bigger could highlight a lack of progress in disinflation and cause market participants to reassess the probability of an interest rate reduction in September. In this case, investors could price in a widening policy gap between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed, opening the door for a sharp decline in EUR/USD in the near term.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains: “EUR/USD holds above the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) following the pullback seen earlier in the week, reflecting sellers’ hesitancy. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50 ahead of the US inflation data, indicating a slightly bullish bias in the short term.”
“The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the mid-April-June uptrend forms interim resistance at 1.0850. Once EUR/USD clears this level, it could face next resistance at 1.0900-1.0915 (psychological level, June 4 high) before targeting 1.1000. On the downside, technical sellers could take action and force EUR/USD to stretch lower if the pair drops below 1.0800 (100-day SMA, 200-day SMA) and starts using this level as resistance. In this scenario, 1.0750 (20-day SMA) could be seen as the next support before 1.0680 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).”
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
