A war between the US and China in the Pacific is not “imminent or inevitable,” but the threat of one is growing, according to a top US military official.
Frank Kendall, the US Air Force Secretary, made the assessment during a keynote address at an Air & Space Forces Association convention on Monday.
“I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not,” Kendall said. “But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so.”
Kendall cited China’s growing capabilities, and pointed to it staging more extensive and advanced military drills that he said were aimed at an invasion and blockade of Taiwan.
He also mentioned China’s heavy investments in military organizations, capabilities, and operational concepts, which he said are specially aimed at thwarting the US and its allies’ capacity to project power in the Western Pacific.
“I’ve been closely watching the evolution of [China’s] military for 15 years. China is not a future threat; China is a threat today,” he said.
One of the main flashpoints between the US and China could be over Taiwan, although there’s also growing tension between China and the Philipines, another US ally.
According to daily updates shared by Taiwan’s defense ministry, China’s aircraft, vessels, and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait and causing Taiwan to scramble its planes.
But experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War said in May that an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign — short of war but still threatening — was more likely than a full-scale invasion, and that the US needed to prepare for such an eventuality.
For decades, the US has adopted “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the island’s most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacked.
But the FT reported last week that preparations for a possible China attack had intensified since Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, said in 2021 that China may invade Taiwan by 2027.
It also reported that Navy SEAL Team 6, an elite military special-missions unit, has spent more than a year planning and training at its Dam Neck base in Virginia Beach for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
In January, US officials also told Reuters the US is trying to spread its military logistics hubs across the Pacific, including warehouses in Australia.
Kendall said that over the past 15 years, he’s seen growing concern and alarm from other countries in the Indo-Pacific region over China’s capabilities and intentions.
He also said that “China continues to expand its nuclear forces and its ability to operate in cyberspace,” and that “we can expect all these trends to continue.”
“To prevent conflict, we must be ready,” he said.
