The Official Trump (TRUMP) token shows a downward trajectory, dropping almost 8% over the past week to trade near $9.35 at press time. The token struggles to hold above critical support levels, facing resistance at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($10.82), as market participants eye an upcoming token unlock and broader questions circulate regarding motivations behind politically-linked crypto assets.

The bearish outlook intensifies due to the first round of TRUMP token unlockings scheduled for April 17th. Approximately 40 million TRUMP tokens (valued around $372 million and representing 20% of the circulating supply) are set to be released.

🚨News: The first major token unlock for $TRUMP, the memecoin launched by U.S. President Trump, is scheduled for April 17.

A total of 40 million tokens—worth $413 million and representing 20% of the circulating supply—will be released. pic.twitter.com/vp5Rf9qcM8

— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) April 1, 2025

Related: Trump’s “Liberation Day” Arrives: How Will New Tariffs Affect Crypto Prices?

Technical Analysis: Below $10 Support

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, if TRUMP lost the $10 support level, suggesting it could quickly drop towards $8. His chart analysis appears validated, as the price has slipped below the psychological $10 mark and hovers near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level ($9.52). Failure to reclaim $10 could open the door to further downside.

Martinez’s shared chart (TRUMP/TetherUS perpetual contract) shows minor support near $9.50 after losing $10, with a more significant support level identified at $8.

Conversely, if $10 is reclaimed, resistance stands near $10.668 (recent high) and $11.10, per the chart.

TRUMP Price Analysis

The Fibonacci extension levels on the daily chart provide further potential price targets. If bearish momentum continues, the next major support lies near $8, aligning with Martinez’s analysis.

Further downside could see TRUMP testing $7.67 (2.618 Fib extension), with more extreme targets at $5.82 and $4.67.

On the upside, immediate resistance is the $10 level, followed by $12.51 (0.236 Fib retracement). A breakout above $12.51 could signal a potential trend reversal.

Related: Why One Trader Won’t Touch Trump Token Ahead of Upcoming Unlocks

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.13 signals the asset is nearing oversold territory but has not confirmed a reversal. The RSI line’s gradient shows a slight increase in buyers, but trading volume remains moderate, suggesting a strong bullish push is needed to shift the current trend.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

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