Heading into the weekend, Ukraine launched what appeared to be one of its largest drone strikes of the war, targeting a Russian airfield home to fighter-bombers able to drop punishing glide bombs.
On Friday, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov, located almost 200 miles west of the Ukrainian border, as part of a multi-front strike also involving targets in Saratov, Kursk, and the Belgorod regions. Ukraine took credit for the attack and reported major damage and destruction.
A Ukrainian law enforcement official told POLITICO that “the attack on Morozovsk airfield was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine together with the military and the defense forces.”
“At least six fighter bombers were destroyed,” that Ukrainian official said, adding that another eight airplanes were “significantly damaged” and 20 Russian soldiers were killed. Ukrainian sources did not go into detail on how the strikes were carried out.
Videos taken from the ground showed multiple explosions at the base, as well as what looked to be Russian air defenses engaging the attacking Ukrainian drones.
Russia, as it typically does, had a different story. Rostov’s Governor Vasily Golubev said on Telegram that the base’s air defenses had repelled attacks and there was little damage and no injuries.
“The electric substation suffered minor damage. About 600 residents were left without a power supply in the morning” Golubev said, adding that Russia shot down over 40 drones.
Business Insider is unable to independently verify these claims.
Early reports suggested Ukraine had destroyed Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers, which have been a menace for Ukrainian defenders on the front line, regularly dropping devastating glide bombs.
An anonymous Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the attack was an important one, while another official told NBC News hitting the Su-34s was “an important special operation that will significantly reduce the combat potential.”
But it remains unclear how successful this offensive counter-air operation was. The day before the attack, satellite imagery showed 29 jets visible across the airfield. Then, on Saturday, new photos suggested there was little damage to the base of aircraft.
No planes were visibly destroyed, and the base showed little signs of damage besides a few craters indicating some sort of attack. A jet appeared to be using the runway, analysts observed.
Although these photos suggest Ukraine’s drones may not have accomplished their intended mission, they may also not tell the full story. The imagery may not be capturing all the details, such as smaller damage to Russian aircraft or other problems at the airfield. It’s just difficult to tell.
Regardless, Ukraine’s strike is the latest on Russian soil, as Kyiv’s forces also intensify strikes on military and energy infrastructure. Though there have been reports of calls to halt these attacks, Ukraine has said these facilities, which Russia has frequently targeted in Ukraine, are legitimate targets. Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US “neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory.”
The attack on Morozovsk is significant as Ukraine appeared to be targeting Russian aircraft able to wreak havoc on its forces with glide bombs.
Glide bombs are large, heavy standoff weapons, meaning they can be released at a distance from a target. Unlike a conventional bomb, they are equipped with kits featuring flight surfaces that allow them to glide to their targets.
That feature allows Russian aircraft to stay at a relatively safe distance from Ukrainian air defenses. Once launched, glide bombs have short flight times and can be hard to track and shoot down. Russia has been using these since last year to devastating effect, but it has ramped up use in the past few months.
In mid-February, Russia used mass glide bomb strikes to overwhelm Ukrainian fortified defenses and help take Avdiivka. Toward the end of that months-long battle, Russia briefly achieved temporary and localized air superiority.
Since the fall of Avdiivka, Russia’s use of glide bombs has only increased. From March 18-24, just a six-day period, Ukraine said that Russia dropped 700 glide bombs on Ukraine.
“Russia’s main advantage on the battlefield is now the widespread use” of these bombs, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said recently, adding that these weapons allow Russian forces “to destroy the targets of the strikes and advance through the ruins.”
He emphasized that really the “only way to counter this barbaric tactic is to shoot down aircraft that drop these bombs, which requires a sufficient number of modern air defense systems at the front.” The only other potential option is to try to take out the planes on the ground.
Ukraine’s air defense network is currently stretched thin defending parts of the front line, civilian centers, and energy and military infrastructure. As Russia increases the size, amount, and intensity of its strikes, including using various types of missiles and drones, Ukraine is being forced to prioritize defending certain targets over others. This could be resulting in some areas, such as Kharkiv, being pummeled by attacks in recent weeks.
As Russian air attacks ramp up and US military assistance remains tied up in Congress, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been sounding the alarm on the dire state of ammunition and his country’s air defenses. In an interview on Saturday, he said Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air-defense systems to fully project itself from Russian attacks.
Other comments in his interview, particularly about delays in security assistance, suggest Ukraine is being forced to “make difficult decisions about prioritizing certain aspects of its defense over constraining Russian military capabilities or preparing for counteroffensive operations,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank that has closely tracked the war.
