- Russia’s war machine has ramped up in ways that could threaten countries beyond Ukraine.
- A former US general said that stopping now “will give Mr. Putin a reprieve.”
- Russia could leverage its active defense industry for a stronger position for future fights in Europe.
Russia is hurting after years of fighting in Ukraine, but its war machine has dangerously ramped up. Taking the pressure off its army could set Moscow up to pick new fights in Europe, current and former ministers and retired military officers told Business Insider.
On Monday, publications including CNN, The New York Times, and Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump had ordered a pause to all US military aid to Ukraine, citing unnamed officials. The Times reported that this would affect more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition.
At the same time, Europe is worried about possible Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.
“My belief is if we take our foot off the gas pedal now, it will give Mr. Putin a reprieve,” retired US Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former commander of United States Army Europe, told BI last month, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“He can lick his wounds, rebuild his forces, see this as a win, and do it again as soon as he generates a newly mobilized, newly equipped force,” Hertling said. “That’s what scares me.”
Russia’s defense industry is rapidly rearming the country’s military and cranking out bombs and drones that it has found useful in its ruthless offensives against Ukraine — weapons that could be turned against others in Europe should Ukraine fold.
Russia’s war machine
Russia’s military has suffered heavily in Ukraine, failing to take the whole country swiftly and instead getting stuck in a grinding, brutal fight in Ukraine’s east. Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of troops, and it has hemorrhaged weaponry.
But Russia’s defense spending and production have soared.
In 2025, Russia plans to spend 6.3% of its GDP on national defense. A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies last month found that Russia’s defense spending in 2024, in terms of purchasing power parity, outpaced Europe’s.
Russia does not produce clear or reliable data on its military production, but a 2024 study found Russia had significantly grown its production of key weaponry types, including the types of aircraft that it found most useful in Ukraine.
Much of Russia’s newly produced weaponry has been funneled into Ukraine, though Russia has kept some of its most advanced gear safe, potentially for a future conflict.
The fear is that without Ukraine, Russia’s stockpiles and military would grow rapidly and be ready to use.
Many European countries have long seen Ukraine’s fight as one that is protecting the rest of Europe. In 2023, Lithuania’s then-prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, described Ukrainian soldiers to BI as people who were dying for European security. She advocated for Ukraine’s allies to give it more weapons.
Ukraine is Europe’s second-largest country in terms of landmass. Its loss or subjugation could allow battle-hardened Russian forces to expand the country’s confrontation with the West.
Ukraine, however, may not be able to continue its fight if it loses out on critical aid at this pivotal moment.
Trump is also pushing for a negotiated cease-fire and does not appear to be seeking one that would stop Russia from pursuing further aggression via security guarantees.
Trump’s Ukraine envoy has said that Europe would not have a seat at the table for cease-fire talks, and Trump has long criticized aid to Ukraine. He’s also been deeply critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
That means the kind of cease-fire Europe wants, which includes continued support for Ukraine and economic pressure on Russia, may not happen.
France and the UK are proposing their own truce between Russia and Ukraine, but it’s not clear how successful that proposal would be.
Troels Lund Poulsen, the defense minister of Denmark, one of Ukraine’s closest partners, told BI that support for Ukraine should not stop even if there’s a cease-fire.
Even if there’s a cease-fire, “we have still to help our friends in Ukraine,” he said, adding: “it’s not the time to slow down.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, who until late last year served as the foreign minister of Lithuania, a NATO member that borders Russia, told BI that “there is no other way” but to keep supporting Ukraine.
He said Russia is “rebuilding, and if we allow them, they will only get strong.”
Europe’s fears
There is concern in Europe that Russia will attack elsewhere on the continent. That’s one reason why many nations are investing heavily in new weaponry and capabilities.
But more needs to be done, European leaders say, to rebuild their defense industrial capacity. The continent has tremendous problems manufacturing sufficient quantities of weaponry, with huge backlogs even when countries are willing to spend.
That makes Europe more vulnerable, especially if the US cannot be relied upon as an ally.
Europe’s efforts to strengthen itself against potential aggression from Russia could also be hamstrung by Ukraine’s military demands, which it may have to bear without the US.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and former commander for the UK’s Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, told BI that his concern over a cease-fire without conditions is that “the Russian war machine is spun up at the moment.”
That pause would allow Russia to keep making more tanks and aircraft, and also take steps to improve its military, like training, that it hasn’t been doing while fighting Ukraine, he said.
Hertling, the retired US general, described Western aid to Ukraine as “a continuing pressure campaign to show Putin that he has failed in doing this.”
Dropping that campaign without security assurances risks giving Putin a reprieve to rebuild his forces and re-attack.
Hertling described Russia as having multiple “different frozen conflicts in Europe,” including Transnistria, a Moscow-backed breakaway province of Moldova that borders Ukraine’s southwest. Putin could turn back to those places if his military is freed up.
Helping Ukraine allows the West to minimize the threat of Russia, Kyiv has repeatedly argued. Many in Europe agree.
Hertling told BI last month that he really believes “that Russia is in very bad shape, not just from their military, but also their economy.”
He said that “this is by far the worst time to take away support from the Ukrainians.”
