A return of Donald Trump to the White House would likely have profound and far-reaching implications for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Guided by his close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump is likely to adopt an assertive strategy to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which he views as a non-negotiable red line, framing it as a shared commitment to Israel’s security and a determined effort to restore deterrence and pull the region back from the brink of escalating conflict while reviving and expanding the Abraham Accords. However, achieving this vision would require Saudi Arabia’s inclusion as a pivotal partner and the establishment of a Palestinian state as a prerequisite. At first glance, an alliance of Trump, Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might seem paradoxical as a catalyst for regional stability and meaningful change—given that none are known for championing democratic ideals. Yet, if carefully aligned with the region’s priorities, such a coalition could inadvertently pave the way for transformative progress by addressing entrenched conflicts and power imbalances.
While reluctant to involve the U.S. in another conflict, Trump’s steadfast commitment to Israel’s security could compel significant American military support, given Israel’s limited capability to independently neutralize Iran’s nuclear facilities. This dilemma would require Trump to strike a delicate balance between his aversion to war—pursuing alternatives such as “maximum pressure 2.0” and a “flashy grand bargain”—and the imperative to back a critical ally with a “blank check“, potentially leading to a full-scale war with Iran. Nevertheless, given Iran’s unwavering determination to advance its nuclear program, diplomatic and economic pressures alone are unlikely to succeed, making an eventual military response against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure increasingly inevitable. Yet, such an approach could also serve to contain a regional arms race, forestall the emergence of another rogue nuclear state akin to North Korea, and avoid Obama’s biggest mistake—his unenforced red line in Syria, which was to blame for America’s lost credibility.
The collapse of Assad’s dictatorship represents a unique window of opportunity for a potential U.S.-Israel-Saudi alliance aimed at dismantling Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia might initially oppose an alliance against Iran due to its mistrust in the Trump administration, reinforced by past U.S. inaction during the 2019 Abqaiq attacks and the 2022 Houthi strikes on Abu Dhabi. However, it could be swayed by a broader plan that includes US security guarantee, and a fair solution for the Palestinians drawing on Trump’s January 2020 “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People.” The TNB Plan (Trump-Netanyahu-Ben Salman) would then align with Saudi interests by promoting regional stability and facilitating the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030.
Yet, this strategy is likely to face resistance in Syria, Tunisia, and Algeria, where fragile regimes grappling with economic crises and public discontent may perceive it as a threat to their sovereignty and the broader Arab commitment to Palestinian self-determination. Supporting such a plan could ignite widespread protests, as populations perceive it as a betrayal of their anti-Israel stance. Cornered, these governments may escalate their rhetoric and adopt hardline positions, amplifying unrest across the Arab street and risking further regional destabilization.
Trump is likely to leverage negotiations with Putin over Ukraine to secure Russia’s withdrawal from Syria, further weakening Iran’s regional influence. Tunisia’s leadership could become increasingly vulnerable to domestic crises, particularly if Kais Saied resists aligning with the emerging TNB Plan. In such a scenario, mounting political and economic instability could create an opportunity for Tunisia to embark on a new trajectory, with a new roadmap that prioritizes economic growth, reducing Tunisia’s dangerous financial dependence on Algeria, and steers the country back toward a credible democratic transition. This path could also pave the way for a leadership more aligned with U.S. regional objectives.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration could accelerate Algeria’s isolation by significantly bolstering Morocco with enhanced U.S. and French military and economic aid. This would solidify Morocco as a pro-Western stronghold in North Africa, reshaping the regional balance of power and further marginalizing Algeria. Under mounting internal unrest and external pressure, Algeria might be forced to reassess its foreign policy, potentially opening the door to political transformation.
In conclusion, while critics may argue that military intervention risks unintended consequences, there remains an opportunity to empower societies long stifled by authoritarian regimes. Figures like exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi, who advocates for a secular Iran, embody a broader regional yearning to break free from Tehran’s sectarian dominance. The true paradox of US-Israel-Saudi alliance lies not in what it represents, but in its potential to deliver meaningful change if it aligns with the aspirations of the region’s people. A successful MAGA foreign policy will hinge on transactional alliances that advance America’s strategic interests while fostering stability in the MENA region. The key will not be empty rhetoric or a passive ‘wait-and-see’ approach but decisive deal-making that prevents prolonged crises and power vacuums.
[Photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons]
Ghazi Ben Ahmed is a recognized expert on Mediterranean and Middle Eastern affairs and the Founder of the Mediterranean Development Initiative. With extensive experience in regional economic development, geopolitics, and international relations, he has worked closely with policymakers, think tanks, and institutions across the MENA region. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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