Investing.com — The presidential race is shaping up to be exceptionally tight, as final polling from The New York Times and Siena College indicates Vice President Kamala Harris gaining momentum in North Carolina and Georgia, while former President Donald J. Trump narrows her lead in Pennsylvania and maintains an advantage in Arizona.
This marks one of the closest presidential contests in recent history, with razor-thin margins across key battleground states in both the Sun Belt and Rust Belt.
According to the New York/Siena poll, Harris holds slight leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona. Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania remain hotly contested, with the candidates effectively tied. Importantly, the margins in these seven states are within the polls’ sampling error, which means that neither candidate holds a definitive lead.
Both Harris and Trump have multiple routes to secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory, provided there are no major polling miscalculations. In such a close contest, even a small error could shift the result dramatically.
However, there are indications that recent undecided voters may be leaning toward Harris, the New York Times reports.
Among those who decided on their vote within the last few weeks, Harris leads 55 percent to 44 percent. About 40 percent of respondents across these battleground states reported they had already cast their ballots, favoring Harris by an eight-point margin. On the other hand, Trump shows strength among voters who intend to vote but have not yet done so.
Trump has notably gained ground in Pennsylvania, where Harris previously led by four points in earlier polls conducted by The New York Times/Siena College since her entry into the race.
Arizona stands out as the only state where Trump leads among voters who have already voted; 46 percent of respondents there indicated they had cast their ballots, with Trump leading that group 50 percent to 46 percent.
The surveys also reveal a shift in voter priorities as the race nears its conclusion. The economy remains the top concern, but other issues are growing in significance. In Wisconsin, where Harris has generally led, abortion is now almost as important as the economy for voters. In Arizona, immigration remains a key issue that continues to influence voter behavior.
Harris’s performance with certain demographics shows mixed results compared to President Biden’s 2020 campaign.
She has made gains with younger voters, Black voters—particularly Black women—and Latino voters since Biden’s departure from the race in July, but still trails his prior performance with these groups.
The gender divide also persists, with Harris leading among women and Trump preferred by men. Among women and younger voters, abortion has overtaken the economy as the most significant issue.
