“America has bestowed upon us an extraordinary and powerful mandate—a historic realignment that unites citizens from all walks of life around a shared foundation of common sense,” remarked President Donald J. Trump. After losing his bid for reelection in 2020 to Democrat Joe Biden, Trump has now made history as the first U.S. president to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland. In his return, he significantly boosted his vote share in 90% of U.S. counties compared to 2020, becoming only the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.
As Donald Trump begins with a second term, a look back at his first presidency reveals pivotal developments in India-US ties. From robust defense ties to trade tensions, the relationship has evolved amid regional challenges and personal diplomacy between Trump and Modi.
The recent appointments in Donald Trump’s second administration, often referred to as “Trump 2.0,” have significant implications for India, particularly in the areas of economic cooperation, defense collaboration, and technological advancement. The newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio is known for his vigilant approach towards China and his support for India. In 2023, he introduced the US-India Defence Cooperation Act, which aims to deepen bilateral security ties in response to China’s aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region. Rubio’s appointment can act as an important factor for strengthening US-India relations, given his pragmatic approach to key issues like technology transfers, defense cooperation, and a free and open Indo-Pacific.
As new frontiers in technology emerge, the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping economies and industries across the globe. For India, this presents an unprecedented opportunity to tackle systemic challenges and foster inclusive growth, positioning the country to lead in this transformative era. The 2024 US-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership underscores Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a key area of collaboration. Both nations are committed to establishing shared principles for AI governance and innovation. Through the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), the partnership prioritizes advancements in AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing, setting a framework for universal cooperation. India has been working extensively on developing Artificial Intelligence and its technologies, with major LLMs like Perplexity AI, based in San Francisco, spearheaded by people from the Indian diaspora. Sriram Krishnan’s appointment as Senior Policy Advisor on AI is expected to strengthen this collaboration further. Trump’s support for Indian professionals amid the debate over Krishnan’s appointment highlights the trust placed in the diaspora.
The U.S.-India defense relationship is also rapidly expanding to meet evolving regional and global security challenges. This includes safeguarding supply chains, advancing critical and emerging technologies, and strengthening cooperation in areas such as cyber, space, and new dimensions of battlespace dominance. With a long-standing history of defense cooperation, diplomatic engagement, and security dialogues through frameworks like the Quad, I2U2, the India-U.S. Defense Framework Agreement, and the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). The partnership is expected to progress further, with Pete Hegseth, the newly appointed Secretary of Defense, emphasizing the growing importance of the U.S.-India defense relationship and highlighting its remarkable strengthening over the past decade. He has expressed his intention to review existing agreements and offer recommendations to further enhance this strategic partnership.
Scott Bessent’s appointment as Treasury Secretary under President Donald Trump signals a shift in approach, as he has publicly criticized the Biden administration for being “too weak” on Russia’s oil sector and expressed his readiness to impose stricter sanctions. This poses challenges for India, which relies on imports for over 85% of its oil needs. By 2024, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for nearly 38% of its imports. Bessent’s stance has driven crude prices above $83 per barrel, with state-owned companies like BPCL reporting insufficient cargo availability for March. With sanctioned Russian tankers barred from docking at Indian ports and the Ukraine war showing no signs of ending, India faces a challenging situation in negotiating stable energy supplies.
India’s strong advocacy for countering terrorism on the global stage underscores the importance of national intelligence and security cooperation. The growing influence of the Sikh separatist movement in North America is a significant concern for India. The appointment of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence is a promising development, given her consistent stance against religious extremism and violence targeting minorities, including Hindus in Bangladesh. As DNI, overseeing agencies like the CIA and NSA, Gabbard’s leadership could enhance intelligence-sharing initiatives, aligning with India’s regional and security priorities to address shared threats more effectively.
During his four years in political exile after his first term, Mr. Trump pledged to fundamentally reshape American life, culture, and politics if re-elected. The initial days of his second term have clearly shown his intent to pursue these changes. Recent executive actions have already caused global shockwaves, presenting both opportunities and challenges for India to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Immigration and economy were a key focus of Trump’s election campaign. On January 20, 2025, he launched the “largest mass deportation operation in history” through an executive order, continuing his long-standing pledge to combat illegal immigration. According to a 2019-22 Pew Research Center analysis, India ranked third with over 725,000 illegal migrants, behind Mexico and El Salvador. As deportations ramp up, concerns are rising for both migrants and the countries involved, particularly India, which saw nearly 90,000 of its nationals arrested in 2023 for attempting illegal entry. While deportations of Indian nationals are not new, the scale of this operation represents a significant escalation.
As the U.S. government intensifies its efforts on illegal immigration and deportations, further executive actions are reshaping the landscape of immigration policy. On January 20, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed another executive order aiming to end citizenship for children born in the U.S. to parents without legal immigration status. This shift has significant legal and social implications, particularly for the Indian-American community. Many Indian-Americans, especially those on temporary visas like H-1B, now face heightened uncertainty, as children born in the U.S. to such parents have traditionally been granted citizenship. The new order threatens this norm, potentially affecting thousands of Indian families.
President Trump also issued a half-dozen executive orders related to energy aimed at expanding the use of fossil fuels, curbing renewable energy and abandoning the federal government’s efforts to address climate change. One of the key decisions was pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, a crucial international pact on climate change, could dismantle existing regulations and treaties aimed at mitigating climate change, with significant repercussions for developing nations in the Global South that rely on first-world funding for climate action. For India, however, this presents an opportunity to step into a more prominent role in representing the interests of developing countries in global climate action.
President Trump also issued an executive order to establish a group tasked with developing policy proposals related to cryptocurrency, an industry in which he has personal investments21. India, which led global cryptocurrency adoption for the second consecutive year despite a tough regulatory stance and steep trading taxes, stands to benefit from this executive action. According to a report by blockchain analytics company Chainalysis, India ranked high in the usage of both centralized exchanges and decentralized finance assets from June 2023 to July 2024. This growing adoption positions India to potentially play a significant role in shaping the future of cryptocurrency policy, particularly if the US moves to regulate or invest in this space under Trump’s administration.
As the U.S. advocates an “America First” agenda and adopts a more isolationist stance, India can seize this opportunity to enhance its influence in the Indo-Pacific region, counter China’s growing power, and advocate for the interests of the Global South. Strengthened defense ties, advancements in technology collaboration, and potential shifts in immigration and energy policies will require India to navigate a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. As global dynamics shift, India’s ability to adapt to these changes will play a crucial role in shaping its future relationship with the U.S. and the broader international community.
[Prime Minister’s Office, India, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rishab Rathi is serving as a Research Associate at the Center for Policy Research and Governance (CPRG). The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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