The much-televised Zelensky-Trump Oval Office argument with fervor shocked the world and shattered the hopes of ending the Ukraine war “in 24 hours”. Some may be insulted by Ukrainian President Zelensky’s audacity to argue with U.S. President Trump in front of the American media. Others were repulsed by the lack of respect shown to Zelensky during his visit. Above all, this incident brought attention to the potential ebbing U.S. commitment to defending partners from military aggression.
Ukraine recently accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in return for the resumption of U.S. military assistance. With Russia yet to agree to the deal, and a chasm between all sides on territory and security guarantees for Ukraine, any ceasefire could become just a strategic pause for further military confrontation. With Ukraine’s fate still uncertain, America risks the collapse of its reputation as a reliable guarantor for its allies.
To address these concerns, the U.S. must bring an end to the conflict without sacrificing the security of Ukraine. Cooperation from China in pressuring Russia could create leverage for the U.S. during peace talk negotiations. The U.S. should prioritize supporting Ukraine to secure victory through a strategic détente with China. China may be the key to triumph in Ukraine.
Many Americans increasingly see the world as rife with potential distractions from what they consider the biggest threat: China. Some advocate for U.S. retrenchment from Europe to address the emerging challenge China poses. However, these perspectives ignore the linkages between the U.S. position in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
Détente with China could liberate resources essential for success in Ukraine, while undermining critical Chinese support for Russia. To be clear, the U.S. should not abandon its long-standing commitment to help Taiwan defend itself and maintain military balance in the Western Pacific. Achieving this end, however, necessitates defending allies in currently active theaters of war, especially Ukraine.
America’s decades-long ‘endless wars’ in the Middle East underscore why the United States and its allies benefit from swift victories. Lukewarm efforts to defend Ukraine have undermined American public support and fueled growing isolationist sentiment. Potential concessions to Russia that sacrifice Ukraine’s security or territorial integrity would surely surge defeatist thinking in Taiwan. Abandoning allies plays directly into the hands of Beijing’s rhetoric characterizing the United States as a weak and untrustworthy ally.
Scaling back commitments for Ukraine theoretically enables more resources for the Indo-Pacific. However, in reality, China is more likely to interpret this as a sign of declining U.S. capabilities and resolve. If the United States cannot decisively commit to aiding Ukraine, Chinese decision-makers might gamble on a limited U.S. intervention for Taiwan. Taiwan’s weapons backlog could balloon further if the U.S. fails to provide adequate support for Ukraine, weakening their positions and expanding the present conflicts into wider, protracted wars.
If a contingency were to arise in the Taiwan Strait, a U.S. military tied down by major wars in other theaters would be compromised in its ability to react. After all, effective deterrence hinges on the proportion of military assets available for deployment.
In a conflict over Taiwan, the United States will have to face China’s rapidly growing defense industrial base, which seeks to build a “world-class” military force by 2049. According to U.S. government estimates, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is acquiring weapons at a rate 5 to 6 times faster than the U.S. military. For example, China’s Jiangnan Shipyard is estimated to produce more ships in a single year than all U.S. shipyards combined.
While reforms are underway, building sufficient domestic production to decouple critical supply chains from China will likely take years. Until the defense-industrial base becomes self-sufficient, the United States may struggle to defend Taiwan.
To help Ukraine secure victory, the United States needs cooperation from China. Indeed, conflict with Russia is inextricably linked to China. China is a key pillar of support for Russia’s economy. China supplies Russia with materials required for weapon manufacturing, while its payments for discounted Russian energy serve as a lifeline against sanctions. Pressuring China to sever support would severely weaken Russia’s bargaining power during negotiations.
Although China is a key pillar of support for Russia, underlying sources of tension linger and their limited partnerships are far from an alliance, the likes of which the United States maintains. China’s geographical proximity to Russia, combined with its expanding economic, military, and diplomatic influence within Russia’s traditional spheres of influence, has quietly bred suspicion.
China’s ‘no limits partnership’ with Russia is tempered by inherent boundaries. China has publicly asserted the importance of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and warned Russia against using nuclear weapons or attacks on nuclear facilities. High-level Ukraine-China talks suggest that China could be open to playing a constructive role in ending the war provided that it benefits China’s interests.
China has emerged as the largest economic partner for several former Soviet republics in Central Asia, where its growing investments and diplomatic sway may sow distrust with Russia. A Russia-North Korea mutual defense treaty indicates a major upgrade in relations that China is likely fearful of. North Korea achieving breakthroughs in ballistic missile or nuclear weapons from Russian technology transfers poses a threat to China’s security and leverage over the Korean Peninsula.
Beijing’s ambition to present itself as a neutral peace broker ultimately restrains it from overtly siding with Moscow. China’s restraint in aiding Russia reflects its intent to keep the door open for reconciliation with the West. Distrust within the China-Russia alignment presents a strategic opening to halt the solidification of a bloc united by hostility against the United States and its allies.
China is also desperate for a détente. Its leadership is keen to mend ties with the West because, without economic prosperity, the Chinese leadership cannot guarantee its own survival.
After decades of breakneck growth, China’s economy is hitting a hard stop. The bursting housing bubble has launched the economy into a downward spiral, marked by high youth unemployment and sluggish consumption. Compounding these issues, a rapidly aging population tests the resilience of China’s social safety net.
China’s bid to transition to a high-tech economy demands positive relations with the United States. China risks triggering additional tariffs if relations with the West deteriorate. A conflict over Taiwan also carries the risk of sanctions and trade disruptions that could cripple the Chinese economy.
The state of U.S.-China relations echoes the dynamics reminiscent of the U.S.-Soviet détente. Détente between the two superpowers was driven partly by waning public support for U.S. entanglements in Vietnam, and the Soviet Union’s internal economic difficulties. Today similar factors emerge: China grapples with a failing economy, while the White House faces an American public wary of foreign interventions, especially in Ukraine. These conditions create fertile ground for a Sino-U.S. détente.
To weaken China’s growing alignment with Russia, the United States should consider easing its pressure campaign and offer credible assurances to encourage China to limit support. As an initial step, the United States could refrain from unnecessary symbolic gestures that elevate Taiwan’s legal status domestically and in international organizations. With greater stability in the Taiwan Strait, the United States can concentrate on winning in Europe.
Escalation with China would most certainly prolong current conflicts and empower Russia. Continued conflict or concessions in Ukraine, then, would stretch the United States to its breaking point and shatter the credibility of American leadership and power.
Détente with China does not mean appeasement; it means choosing where to fight and when to negotiate, leveraging diplomacy as a powerful strategy for preserving power. A well-calculated détente with China can enable the U.S. to end the Ukraine conflict with the upper hand. Defending Ukraine and preserving U.S. credibility will be the first test for Pax Americana this decade.
Philip Hou is President of Peace for Taiwan, a US-based nonprofit dedicated to the research of policy issues about Taiwan, China and the Asia-Pacific region. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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