The Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) assembly elections in India concluded on October 1st, with the National Conference-Congress alliance emerging victorious, winning a majority of 49 of the Legislative Assembly’s 90 seats to form Jammu and Kashmir’s first government since the BJP-PDP coalition collapsed in 2018.
This election holds great significance and has drawn global attention for a number of reasons. This is the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2014, when the BJP-PDP coalition was voted into power. The region has been under the direct governance of India’s central government since the collapse of its local government in 2018 and the 2024 election marks a much-anticipated return to democratic processes in the region. This is also the first election since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 which revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and led to the region being administered as two union territories, the other one being Ladakh. The smooth and successful conduct of these elections can ultimately be viewed as a victory for democracy, particularly given the absence of major law and order incidents—a stark contrast to the more than 170 incidents reported during the 2014 election process.
Despite the long-standing history of election boycotting in Jammu and Kashmir, multiple records of voter turnout were broken across constituencies in the region, with the overall turnout in fact exceeded that of the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year by over 5%. The overall voter turnout was 63.88% with phase three marking the highest turnout of the three phases, reaching nearly 70%. While there was a slight decrease in voter turnout compared to the 2014 elections, the statistics still demonstrate robust public engagement and commitment to the democratic process in a historically tumultuous region that is aspiring for change.
The Electoral Commission went to great lengths to ensure it “leave no voter behind” by making certain voters living in even the most remote areas of Jammu and Kashmir had access to a polling station. Close to 500 separate polling stations were set up along the mountainous Line of Control, India’s de facto international border with Pakistan. In the lead-up to the elections, security measures were significantly intensified in the area to anticipate potential cross-border infiltration and terrorist activity, ensuring that residents could cast their votes without disruption. Residents of Makri, one such border village, expressed their enthusiasm for the upcoming election and their hope to convey their communities needs to a local government. One villager highlighted their primary concerns: “We need better roads, medical facilities, and more teachers for our children”.
Furthermore, this election has been a landmark moment for certain refugee communities, as they are exercising their right to vote in India for the first time in their lives. Valmiki, Gorkha and Pakistan refugee communities are three such examples, which were all denied the right to vote in local assembly elections due to the provisions of article 370 and the region’s special status. Following the revocation of article 370, these communities can not only participate in Jammu and Kashmir’s elections, but can also buy land and apply for jobs.
These communities originally arrived in Jammu and Kashmir as refugees from India’s partition or as workers under government initiatives, but have been treated as “unwanted citizens” in their new home. Members of these communities have related how, although once seeing “scavenging as their fate”, they can now “can now aspire to be an MLA or even a minister”. One refugee, Ruldu Ram, expressed how his “joy knew no bounds” after casting his vote for the first time in his life at the age of 90. This election clearly holds great symbolic significance for these communities and it is essential that this momentum is translated into long-term, tangible change to sustain its transformative impact.
The election has marked a pivotal moment for women’s representation in Jammu and Kashmir, with footage and photographs capturing polling stations where winding queues of female voters often outnumbered those of their male counterparts. A reporter stationed at a polling booth in Bandipora claimed that the area saw an unprecedented female voter turnout with women “leading this particular phase” of voting. Data collected from 40 constituencies voting in phase three shows that while male voter turnout only surpassed 75% in eight different constituencies, female voter turnout exceeded 75% in 20 different constituencies. This indicates how the trends observed in Bandipora are reflective of broader patterns across the region.
While male nominees continue to dominate the political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir, there was a notable 57% increase in female candidates in this election compared to 2014, which may partially account for the unprecedented the female election turnout. Three female candidates successfully secured seats including Sakina Itoo, who won a “Best MLA Award” in 2012 for her exception work in her constituency and has also survived 20 assassination attempts throughout her career. She has praised the Lok Sabha’s bill passed at the end of 2023 mandating that 33% of seats be reserved for women in future assemblies of Jammu and Kashmir and has spoken about how the landscape of politics has changed significantly since she began her career in 1996 as one of only two female politicians in the region.
Another reason for this surge in female participation may also be linked to the recent rise in female entrepreneurs across the region. Women have been able to use social media platforms to create virtual shopfronts where they more easily promote and sell their products from their own homes to customers across the country. Their businesses cover a diverse range of sectors including fashion, farming, pottery and Mehandi. Given these new business interests, there is an even greater incentive for women to actively participate in the decision-making processes of their region.
It is also encouraging to observe that many areas previously known as militant hotbeds have experienced some of the highest voter turnouts seen in these constituencies in several decades. The Reasi district in the Jammu division was the site of this year’s deadliest Jammu and Kashmir terror attack, during which militants with links to Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba fired on a bus of Hindu pilgrims and killed eight passengers and the driver. However, just four months later the district saw a surge in voter turnout for assembly elections, which reached a 72.06% average, almost 10% higher than the average turnout across Jammu and Kashmir.
Pulwama is another example of a militant hotbed turned voting stronghold. In 2019 a convoy of Indian Central Reserve Police Force was attacked by a suicide bomber, resulting in 40 fatalities. The bomber was a young Pulwama local but had links to Pakistan based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed. During Lok Sabha elections carried out three months later, less than 3% of Pulwama locals exercised their right to vote. This was in part due to militants calling for boycotts and threatening violence against those participating in the vote, a threat they demonstrated by launching grenades at polling stations during this election. In the 2024 assembly election however, the turnout reached nearly 40%, indicating a major transformation in local conditions and attitudes towards the election procedure. A combination of heightened safety during the voting process and a more optimistic outlook as militancy gradually diminishes in these areas has contributed to this significant increase in voter engagement and a marked reduction in voter “apathy and fear”.
These elections mark the first step in a steady journey toward bringing meaningful change to Jammu and Kashmir. Although voting has only just concluded, early signs already suggest that a strong foundation has been laid for a productive five-year term ahead. National Conference leader Omar Abdullah has already declared his and his incoming government’s intention to “have coordination with the Centre” and work smoothly with Narendra Modi’s central government on key issues. High voter turnouts amongst women, refugees, voters in isolated locations and constituencies with long histories of militant activity all indicate this determination for change is shared on a regional scale.
The drastic surges in voter turnout in former militant hotbeds is particularly encouraging in the way it demonstrates how democracy can serve as a counterbalance for militancy in the region. To fulfil the promise shown thus far, it is essential that the National Conference-Congress coalition addresses key voter concerns, such as unemployment and regional development, while maintaining the unity of their alliance. Ultimately, they must transform the hopes invested in this election into tangible outcomes for the people.
[Photo by Public.Resource.Org, via Flickr]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Eve Register is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation and part of NATO DEEP’s Global Threats Advisory Group.
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