In late November, Cyprus’ President Nicos Christodoulides revealed potential NATO aspirations for Cyprus in the future. Against the backdrop of growing relations with America, President Christodoulides and US President Joe Biden look to bolster Cyprus’ defense and enhance cooperation with the West.
Despite a promising future, Cyprus will have major hurdles to overcome on its way to ascension. Not only will it face factual occupation and Russian influence, but Nicosia will also face politicking by NATO heads and other constitutional conundrums.
Cyprus’ NATO Talks
Washington has reassessed cold relations with Nicosia in the last few years. Both countries, despite having formal relations, have wounded scars from the Cold War, particularly the American backing of the Greek Junta in Athens and the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in the 1970s.
Nevertheless, growing energy and military cooperation with Israel, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia moving a consulate into the occupied regions of Cyprus helped Washington and Nicosia grow ties once again.
The Biden Administration would partially lift the several-decades-long Cypriot arms embargo, and the US National Guard would enhance cooperation with Cyprus’ National Guard. Talks began on potentially transferring Soviet-era weaponry the Cypriot government brought to Ukraine in return for new Western armaments.
Israel would help solidify a deal to eventually transfer its older Merkava tanks to Cyprus, and Nicosia would look to start procuring new stockpiles to enhance the capabilities of its National Guard.
A recent summit between Cypriot President Christodoulides and US President Joe Biden established a potential framework for Cyprus to take steps towards NATO. However, much of the hurdles will go through Turkey, which does not recognize Cyprus’s legitimate government.
A Divided Isle Makes the Situation Much Harder
Cyprus’ geopolitical problem originated after British rule. In the mid-1950s, the Greek Cypriot paramilitary EOKA attempted to force out the British military and unite the island with Greece (Enosis), which the Turkish Cypriots would show displeasure at and call for unification with Turkey (Taksim).
During the nominal independence period, intercommunal violence would plague the island as Greek and Turkish Cypriot militias fought frequently. The fighting displaced thousands of Greek and Turkish Cypriots who lived together throughout the island and forced the latter into enclaves.
Eventually, after the Greek Cypriot EOKA-B paramilitary, elements of the National Guard, and the Greek junta in Athens overthrew Archbishop Makarios of Cyprus—triggering the first Turkish invasion soon after. After the juntas in Athens and Nicosia were overthrown, the Turkish military would continue an even larger invasion—this time permanently dividing the island with Turks in the North and predominantly Greeks and other ethnic groups in the South.
Turkey would permanently keep a major military presence to this day in the occupied North and created the unilateral unrecognized Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, which the international community sees as an extension of Ankara. The frozen conflict is marked alongside lines with UN peacekeepers (the green line) and the British base of Dhekelia.
Proposals of reconciliation and reunification of the scarred Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities have failed, and potential talks over a possible full annexation of the occupied North by Ankara have been reported. Clashes against UN peacekeepers by Turkish Cypriot police, backed by the Turkish army in 2023, have left fears over renewed conflict in Cyprus.
Digressing from Russian Influence
Under an American-enforced arms embargo and partial occupation due to a Western-backed invasion, Cyprus would come under Russian influence.
Nicosia would purchase a Russian-made S-300 system that nearly caused a renewed war with Turkey on the island. Thanks to international intervention, the system was transferred to Greece and is now reportedly ready to transfer to Armenia.
Alongside Russian-made weapons, Cyprus is notorious for being a safe haven for Russian dirty money, which raised concerns in the European Union—particularly with the golden passports. In 2024, Nicosia took steps to crack down on golden passport holders who participated in money laundering—stripping seven major Kremlin-backed tycoons of citizenship.
Digressing from Russian influence will be key for Cyprus’ future ascension protocol, as Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova all fight to crack down on Russia’s influence in their countries while reconciling with the West.
The Gridlock Towards NATO Ascension
Cyprus’ NATO ascension will be a very bureaucratic and meticulous process. Nicosia will primarily deal with hurdles in occupation and backdoor politicking amongst NATO heads of state.
The occupied northern regions are already a major obstacle for Cyprus, as NATO protocol states that a country cannot join in a territorial dispute. Nicosia would most likely have to prepare to make a concession to Ankara to convince the Turkish government to join.
The United States can play a leading role in a possible concession with Turkey for Cyprus’ membership through several means. The US and Europe could send economic aid to the stagnant Turkish economy, a new weapons package, or support for EU ascension that could satisfy Turkey.
Turkey would most likely push for the F-35. That concession would not only lead to internal political disputes in Washington but also condemnation and split ties with Greece that the Biden and Mitsotakis administrations mended. Nevertheless, as the Turkish military occupation is illegal, unrecognized, and refuses to end, sanctions and eventual relief could be enacted in Ankara until they approve Nicosia’s ascension.
Simultaneously, Cyprus could face pushback from Hungary, which is run by a kleptocratic government considered to be Europe’s ‘Trojan horse. ‘ The Fidesz government is extremely close to both Russia and Turkey and would stall Cyprus’ ascension at the behest of both.
A Backup Plan for Security Guarantees
If Cyprus’ NATO membership aspirations fall into perpetual purgatory, Nicosia can request to have a formal security guarantee from a major global power, such as France or the United States.
Currently, France is growing relations with both Greece and Cyprus and is in a geopolitical dispute with Turkey and Russia. Placing Nicosia under the fold could be in Paris’ National interests.
America would be the obvious choice to solidify a mutual defense pact/formal alliance with Cyprus. The Cypriot government could push for a defense treaty akin to what Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Israel have with the US, as Cyprus’ critical geography makes it an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier.’
Cyprus currently hosts a permanent British military presence on the island at the Sovereign Air Bases of Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which are critical in Britain’s overseas operations. American forces currently have a small but instrumental presence at those bases. Proposals to host a permanent American military contingent at Andreas Papandreou Airbase are ongoing as the base prepares for expansion.
US presence in Cyprus could also mitigate further tensions between Cyprus and Turkey. Washington’s soft power can push Ankara to recognize Nicosia as the true legitimate government on the island.
Through periods of stagnation, Cyprus is reassessing its security in lieu of renewed threats and rapidly changing global affairs. If Nicosia does push for NATO ascension, which is nearly guaranteed to stall, a formal mutual defense pact akin to the US-Japan/ROK alliance would be the next major step to push for.
[Photo by European Parliament, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”
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