The New York Yankees would like to freeze the season right now. They’re 2-0 with a pair of come-from-behind victories against the Astros in Houston. An optimist would view their perfect start as a sign of things to come, but a pessimist would point out that the season can only go downhill from here.
Their true path is tied to the success of their starting pitching. Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole was just moved to the 60-day IL with forearm inflammation, and he aims for a June 1 return.
The remaining hurlers are all highly risky. Lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón will lead the rotation after injuries and poor performance derailed their 2023 campaigns. Cortes was a revelation in 2021 and 2022, but became imprecise with his command last year and his ERA ballooned to 4.97 over 12 starts.
Rodón’s first year of a six-year, $162 million deal was an abject disaster. He’s a two-pitch pitcher, and his fastball velocity was inconsistent while he hung too many sliders. His 6.85 ERA was nearly four runs higher than it had been in 2022 with the San Francisco Giants.
The same is true for Marcus Stroman, who signed with the club this offseason. He was named an All-Star for his excellent first half, but gave up 26 runs in 18 innings over seven appearances from July 20 through the end of the year.
Clarke Schmidt slots in as the fourth starter, and he was at least durable a season ago. He threw 159 innings over 32 starts and one relief appearance, but allowed too many baserunners, including 169 base hits and 24 home runs. His 46 walks weren’t bad, but he also plunked 11 batters—fourth-most in the American League.
Luis Gil won the fifth starter job in spring training after Cole’s injury left a vacancy in the Yankees’ rotation. He showed promise in 2022, but tore his UCL early in 2022 and missed all of 2023 except for a pair of minor-league starts.
It’s too early to make any conclusions about how things are going so far, but Cortes wasn’t as bad as his four-run, five-inning line on Opening Day and Rodón wasn’t as good as his 2.08 ERA over 4 1/3 innings last night. Cortes was battered for three runs in the first inning and surrendered a solo home run in the second, then settled down and threw three scoreless frames before getting the hook. Rodón pitched out of trouble all night, allowing five hits and three walks to the 21 batters he faced. If he repeats that kind of performance, he’ll give up more than one run the overwhelming majority of the time, but at least his velocity was up to 98 mph.
The Yankees added a starting pitcher via trade yesterday, acquiring JT Brubaker from the Pittsburgh Pirates with a $500,000 international bonus pool allotment for a player to be named later. He’s still ramping up after missing all of 2023 following Tommy John Surgery, so he won’t factor into their rotation until midseason.
The first two months of season are about survival until Cole comes back, but he even after he returns, he can only pitch every fifth day. The spectrum of outcomes for Cortes, Rodón, and Stroman will determine the Yankees’ fate in 2023. Cortes and Rodón didn’t give indications which way they’ll go in their first starts of the year, and Stroman takes the ball this evening.
Come-from-behind victories are thrilling, but it’s best not to fall behind in the first place. The jury is still out on whether the Yankees’ starting pitching can keep them in games often enough to get them back to the postseason.
