The Russian Black Sea Fleet’s “humiliating” retreat from Crimea has exposed the emptiness of the country’s red lines, according to a military observer.
Peter Dickinson, the editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert online publication and chief editor of Business Ukraine Magazine, made the analysis in an Atlantic Council blog post on Tuesday.
“The Russian Navy’s readiness to retreat from its supposedly sacred home ports in Crimea has made a mockery of Moscow’s so-called red lines and exposed the emptiness of Putin’s nuclear threats,” he said.
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and has used its Sevastopol Naval Base as the primary headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet.
But Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a Facebook post earlier this week that Russia had pulled its last Black Sea Fleet warship out of Crimea.
“Remember this day,” he wrote.
The Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also said in a Telegram post on Tuesday that there were no longer any Russian naval ships left in the waters.
Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, using aerial drones, sea drones, and anti-ship missiles.
Earlier this year, Ukraine’s military claimed to have destroyed a third of the fleet, and in March, the UK’s Ministry of Defence declared the Black Sea Fleet “functionally inactive.”
According to Dickinson, Russia’s reaction to the “mounting setbacks” in the Black Sea challenges the Western narrative that a “cornered and beaten” President Vladimir Putin could resort to the “most extreme measures,” including the use of nuclear weapons.
“In fact, he has responded to the humiliating defeat of the Black Sea Fleet by quietly ordering his remaining warships to retreat,” Dickinson wrote.
Some in the West have voiced concerns that Russia could escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, or even use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, if its red lines were crossed.
It’s a concern that has played a central role in how much and what kind of military aid is being given to Ukraine.
Recently, there have been worries among some Ukrainian allies about how Russia could respond to them lifting restrictions on weapons they’ve supplied being used to hit targets inside Russia itself.
But Dickinson said the overwhelming evidence from what has happened in the Black Sea confirms that “when confronted by resolute opposition, Putin is far more likely to back down than escalate.”
“The West’s fear of escalation is Putin’s most effective weapon,” he added. “It allows him to limit the military aid reaching Kyiv, while also preventing Ukraine from striking back against Russia.”
This, he said, “is slowly but surely setting the stage for inevitable Russian victory in a long war of attrition.”
