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Under the leadership of U.S. President Trump, a recalibrated world order is emerging—one defined by raw power, transactional diplomacy, and an unapologetic assertion of American dominance. This shift is forcing allies and adversaries alike to reassess their positions, as Washington prioritizes American interests above long-standing alliances and diplomatic norms. From the European Union to Canada, from Mexico to China, no nation is immune to the consequences of this foreign policy realignment. Even peripheral nations, such as Tunisia, face growing pressure to align with U.S. interests or risk economic and strategic repercussions.
Allies are expected to “pay their fair share,” while adversaries are subjected to relentless pressure until they yield to U.S. demands
For traditional allies, Trump’s demands have been jarring. Canada and Mexico, longtime NAFTA partners, faced abrupt punitive tariffs, later lifted to enforce U.S. trade demands. Similarly, European nations—cornerstones of America’s post-World War II alliances—found themselves in Trump’s crosshairs. He repeatedly criticized European countries for trade imbalances and their failure to meet NATO’s defense spending commitments. Furthermore, Trump’s direct negotiations with Putin sideline Europe, leaving its leaders unprepared and at risk of exclusion from peace talks despite bearing the costs of aiding Kyiv. This shift is prompting divided Europeans to reassess their dependence on Washington and make concessions to maintain their alliances.
While allies are being forced to recalibrate, adversaries like China and Iran face outright confrontation. The looming trade war with China—characterized by tariffs and escalating rhetoric—has sparked global economic uncertainty. Trump is likely to use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic, just as he has leveraged geopolitical tensions and strategic maneuvers to pressure adversaries in the Middle East into concessions. This approach aligns with what Israeli observers call ‘putting in a goat’—introducing an extreme demand with the intention of later removing it to create the illusion of a concession.
Similarly, Iran is facing a moment of maximum pressure. While Trump appears open to negotiations with Iran, he has made it clear that their nuclear ambitions constitute a red line—one he intends to enforce, unlike Obama’s unfulfilled red line in Syria. His steadfast commitment to Israel’s security suggests that, if necessary, he would back rhetoric with action. A decisive effort to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat would not only reinforce U.S. credibility but also contribute to long-term stability in the MENA region by curbing the risks of nuclear proliferation and deterring Tehran’s regional aggressions.
Yet, Trump’s approach is not purely punitive. Nations that submit to U.S. demands can find a path back into the fold—on America’s terms. This dynamic is evident with countries such as Colombia and El Salvador.
Under Trump’s administration, the space for geopolitical neutrality is shrinking
Many nations in the Global South, which traditionally sought to balance relations between great powers, now face a stark choice: align with the United States or risk strategic and economic marginalization. The Trump doctrine makes it clear that non-alignment comes at a cost, as seen in countries across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East that are being forced to redefine their foreign policy strategies.
Tunisia, a swing country, serves as a prime example of this new reality. President Kais Saied’s anti-Western rhetoric reflects a broader trend among leaders seeking to assert sovereignty, yet Tunisia remains economically and militarily dependent on the West. This balancing act is increasingly untenable as Trump’s foreign policy prioritizes clear alliances over ambiguity. Moreover, Saied’s position on global conflicts further complicates Tunisia’s standing. While he has the right to support the Palestinian cause, he must also clearly and unequivocally condemn the October 7th tragedy and refrain from antagonizing the West.
President Trump is likely to reverse the course set by the Biden administration, which has allowed Tunisia to receive American aid while its leadership adopts increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and strengthens ties with actors hostile not only to U.S. interests but also to Tunisia’s stability and the security of the entire region, including groups that U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson has described as ‘terrorists of the Iranian regime’
Tunisia cannot afford a foreign policy steered by Algiers or Tehran, nor the isolation imposed by an authoritarian, anti-West president. This diplomatic deadlock is further compounded by a fragile security landscape: caught between chronic instability in Libya and an increasingly assertive Algeria, the country faces mounting threats. The 2016 Ben Guerdane terrorist attack, stands as a stark reminder, where U.S. military support proved indispensable. Reports suggest the presence of a U.S. drone base in southern Tunisia, although local authorities deny its existence. A formal U.S. military base in Tunisia is a strategic necessity. Beyond security, it would shield Tunisia from hostile influences and reinforce its standing as a stabilizing force in North Africa.
The Global Reckoning: Align or Decline in a Shifting World Order
Nations must now confront a stark reality: embrace the flawed but indispensable U.S.-led order, or sink further into instability by rejecting it. Tunisia stands at a critical crossroads, trapped in a cycle of economic stagnation, oppression and political volatility that worsens as it distances itself from the West. Neither regional alliances nor distant powers can provide the economic support, security guarantees, and institutional stability it critically needs.
Ambiguity has consequences. The recent self-immolation near the Great Synagogue of Tunis is a stark warning of the dangers posed by divisive rhetoric and rising antisemitism, recklessly stoked by the country’s leadership. This is not Tunisia’s first moment of reckoning. After independence, President Habib Bourguiba aligned with the West, securing development and stability. That same clarity is needed now more than ever. Tunisia must break free from self-inflicted turmoil and embrace a trajectory that ensures security, sovereignty, and a future aligned with democracy and progress.
[Photo by The White House, via Wikimedia Commons]
Ghazi Ben Ahmed is a recognized expert on Mediterranean and Middle Eastern affairs and the Founder of the Mediterranean Development Initiative. With extensive experience in regional economic development, geopolitics, and international relations, he has worked closely with policymakers, think tanks, and institutions across the MENA region. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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