The 2024 NBA Conference Semifinals is rich with tantalizing storylines. Game 1 of the Denver Nuggets (#2)/Minnesota Timberwolves (#3) series was an instant classic, the Oklahoma City Thunder (#1)/Dallas Mavericks (#5) matchup promises to be a duel of MVP candidates, and an age-old rivalry is adding a new chapter with the New York Knicks (#2) set to do battle with the Indiana Pacers (#6).
But the one series everyone seems to have already written off is the one/four matchup between the Boston Celtics (#1) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (#4). Sportsbooks like FanDuel give the Celtics +175 odds of winning the series in five games. And projection models like the one at Opta Analyst only give the Cavaliers a 9.2% chance of emerging from this series victorious.
On the surface, the lopsidedness of these outlets makes sense. The Celtics swiftly dismissed their first round opponent (the Miami Heat) in a convincing five-game gentleman’s sweep, outscoring the injury-riddled Heat by 78 points over the course of the series. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers narrowly escaped the inexperienced Orlando Magic, as the burgeoning bunch took Cleveland to seven games and held them under 100 points in each contest except for two (Games 5 and 7).
However, even when you frame the series this way, I still believe that everyone is selling Cleveland short. Now, I’m not saying they will win the series (in fact, I myself predict the Celtics to win). But I do think that they will push Boston a lot further than most people believe they can, and here are four reasons why.
Reason #1: Donovan Mitchell — The Playoff Warrior
Anyone who really knows basketball will tell you that championships are won by teams, not individual players. With that said, some players (the special ones) have the clout to swing a game or two on their lonesome. And in the playoffs, all it takes is one or two games to change the entire outcome of a series.
Donovan Mitchell is one of those players. If not for injuries, he’d be a shoo-in for an All-NBA First or Second Team spot this year, and what’s more, he has a history of leveling his game up during the game’s second season. From 2019-21 (17 games), Mitchell averaged 33.9 points and 5.2 assists on 64% true shooting.
His 2022 and 2023 Playoffs weren’t as dazzling, but Mitchell was also dealing with injuries during those cycles. This postseason, Mitchell has gotten back to his ways (despite still being unhealthy). In his final two games against the Magic, Mitchell averaged 44.5 PPG and 4.5 APG on 60.9% true shooting.
All this is to say that Mitchell is ready for battle, and when he’s playing at this level, he has a legitimate chance of being the best player in this series. If that’s the case, it gives the Cavaliers a massive advantage, regardless of how talented this Celtics roster may be.
Reason #2: No Kristaps Porzingis
Like we just said, the Celtics are a deep team (at least by playoff standards). Their top 6 players hold up against any team in the association. The problem is that their second-best player will likely be missing the entire series.
I know what you’re thinking. Wait, Jaylen Brown isn’t injured? You’re correct, but I’d posit that Brown isn’t Boston’s second-best player and that the designation actually belongs to one Kristaps Porzingis.
Brown is a great wing scorer and defender, but his skillset is a little bit redundant when flanking Jayson Tatum (who provides a better version of that player archetype). Porzingis, on the other hand, gives Boston high-level rim protection (arguably the second most valuable skill after on-ball creation) and perimeter spacing that you don’t normally get from the center position.
As I’ve discussed before (in this article), Porzingis gives Boston a blend of offense and defense at the five spot that they haven’t had at any point in the Tatum/Brown era. His two-way impact is a big reason why many one-number metrics (like DRIP) view Porzingis as Boston’s second-best player:
No matter where you stand on the Brown/Porzingis debate, the fact that Boston has to go through this series without their starting center is a major blow. Yes, Boston was 21-4 in the 25 games without Porzingis during the regular season. But the Memphis Grizzlies were 19-6 in the 2021-22 regular season without Ja Morant. Does that mean they could have handled a postseason series without him? Probably not (they went 1-2 in the three playoff games he missed that year).
Now, this year’s Celtics is a better team than that Grizzlies team was, but they will still be missing a major piece of their puzzle without Porzingis out there on the court.
(Sidebar: If Jarrett Allen is healthy and ready to go, that gives Cleveland two starting-caliber big men — Evan Mobley being the other one — they can weaponize to attack Boston’s depleted frontline).
Reason #3: It’s A Make Or Miss League
Transcendent stars and unfortunate injuries can turn a series. But you know what else can create major upsets: shooting variance.
For those who aren’t completely aware, shooting variance is the term used to describe the drastic swings in a team’s shooting percentages on a game-to-game basis. You see, if a team averages 35% shooting from three, it usually isn’t because they shoot around that mark in each of their games. Normally, teams shoot a wide variety of percentages from three (22% one game, 48% the next, etc.), and eventually, over the course of an 82-game season, that number stabilizes to the number that becomes the team’s shooting average.
While less prone to shooting variance than a single-game March Madness matchup, a best-of-seven playoff series is still a pretty small sample size. As a result, a hot/cold shooting stretch may make/break a team during a playoff series.
We mention this because teams like the Celtics are particularly susceptible to shooting variance since they take a high volume of 3-pointers (1st in 3-point attempts in the regular season). As a general rule, the more threes you attempt, the higher the likelihood that you experience positive/negative shooting luck. We saw shooting variance bite them in the butt in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat (Miami outshot them by 13.1% from three in that series). What if the same problem rears its ugly head in the conference semifinals?
Cleveland is also due for a hot shooting stretch. Against Orlando, the Cavaliers shot just 28.7% from three. Cleveland isn’t a bad shooting team, though. In the regular season, they averaged 36.7% from downtown and finished 8th in 3-point attempts per game. What happens if Cleveland experiences some positive shooting regression AND Boston has a cold spell? I think things would get pretty interesting.
Reason #4: The Return of Dean Wade?
A part of the Cavaliers’ season that isn’t getting talked about enough is that they have had to go the last two months without Dean Wade (arguably their best player off the bench).
To this point, there has been no word about whether or not Wade will even be eligible to play in this series. But if he can, it’s an absolute game-changer.
In the regular season, Wade was in the 96th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes) and the 76th percentile in 3-point shooting percentage (39.1%). Wade gives them a mixture of size (6’9), defense, and shooting that no other player on the roster can match, as evidenced by his presence on four of the team’s six best lineups this season.
Admittedly, this is the weakest one of my four arguments. Given the lack of reporting around his injury, there is a strong chance that he doesn’t play a single minute in this series.
But if Wade can find a way, Mitchell keeps burning like the brightest star in the sky, and the team awakens from the 3-point line, Cleveland becomes the kind of team that could push the Porzingis-less Celtics to the brink of premature elimination.
