As the Donald Trump administration took office for the second term, its policies toward Central Asia—a region of growing geopolitical and economic importance assumed critical importance on the global stage. Following his electoral victory, Central Asian governments, particularly Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, were among the first high-ranking officials to congratulate Trump, signalling the region’s profound interest in maintaining and potentially expanding bilateral relations. The U.S. presidential election held substantial relevance for Central Asia’s multi-vector foreign policy strategy. Trump’s victory presents potential opportunities to enhance economic cooperation and strengthen regional security mechanisms. His return to power promised significant transformative potential, emphasizing pragmatic, business-oriented engagement while maintaining a strategic focus on countering China and Russia and addressing geopolitical challenges in Afghanistan.
During Trump’s initial term from January 2017 to January 2021, U.S. policy toward Central Asia remained unfocused, with minimal substantive changes in bilateral relations. A defining characteristic of this period was apparent diplomatic neglect towards the region. Rex Tillerson, Trump’s Secretary of State from 2017 to 2018, notably did not meet with Central Asian leaders, symbolizing a perceived diplomatic disinterest. Despite this initial indifference, significant diplomatic developments emerged. Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev’s historic visit to Washington—occurring after a prolonged period of tension under the previous Karimov administration—marked a significant diplomatic milestone, though primarily initiated by Tashkent rather than Washington. Another defining feature of Trump’s first term was the reduction in the budget of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), resulting in relative stagnation of USAID activities in Central Asia. However, Trump demonstrated a more nuanced approach to diplomatic appointments, deploying a more assertive team in the region. Strategically selected diplomatic personnel, such as retired military officer Klimov to Turkmenistan, Daniel Rosenblum as ambassador to Uzbekistan, and Pomersheim to Tajikistan, contributed to increased regional mobility and engagement. Trump approved a five-year U.S. strategy toward Central Asia in 2020, which largely maintained continuity with previous policies and introduced no significant operational changes. Beyond the deployment of more robust diplomatic personnel, Trump’s relations with Central Asia remained relatively static during this period. The strategic significance of these diplomatic maneuvers and their potential long-term implications for regional geopolitics continued to evolve, reflecting the complex and dynamic nature of international relations in this strategically important region.
Given the evolving circumstances in Central Asia, shaped by international dynamics, Donald Trump’s foreign policy towards the region is anticipated to produce strategic outcomes that differ from his previous term. The approach will largely hinge on U.S.-Russia relations, with the Trump administration likely prioritizing the resolution of the Ukraine crisis to redirect U.S. strategic focus from Eurasia to the Pacific. This shift could potentially diminish the likelihood of interventions and conflicts within Eurasia. However, ongoing tensions resulting from Biden-era policies, such as significant military actions against Russian territory utilizing Western weaponry, may complicate Trump’s initiatives with Russia and, by extension, Central Asia.
A significant aspect of U.S.-Central Asia relations is the narrative surrounding Russia’s influence in the region. This narrative often misrepresents the dynamics of regional decision-making, framing Central Asian nations as mere extensions of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. Such a viewpoint neglects the sovereignty of these states and their ability to formulate independent foreign policies. Decisions made by Central Asian countries that may seem “anti-Russian” are often strategic efforts to diversify partnerships and assert autonomy rather than outright rejections of Russian influence. These narratives fail to capture the intricate interplay of local, regional, and global factors influencing Central Asia’s policies.
Trump’s assertive stance on China may lead to a surge in U.S.-centered anti-China activities within Central Asia. Plans aimed at containing China could involve sanctions, security measures, and political pressure, all of which might affect Central Asia’s security and economic relationships with Beijing. Nevertheless, Central Asia is likely to occupy a secondary role in Trump’s broader anti-China strategy, which will primarily focus on Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Economic and Strategic Opportunities
Economic strategies will take precedence in Trump’s foreign policy towards Central Asia. Key areas of focus include enhancing trade in critical resources such as lithium, cobalt, and uranium; advancing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project to lessen reliance on Russia; and supporting Uzbekistan’s membership in the WTO through pragmatic policies. During Marco Rubio’s confirmation hearing as Secretary of State, he expressed support for normalizing trade relations with Central Asian nations by advocating for the removal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. This outdated legislation from 1974 denied normal trade relations to non-market economies, particularly targeting the Soviet Union and its allies. Although largely obsolete in the post-Cold War context, it still affects Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan by subjecting them to conditional trade relations and annual reviews. Despite prior efforts to repeal this legislation for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, these countries continue to face trade restrictions. The strategic energy resources of Central Asia and its position as a geopolitical crossroads underscore the necessity for normalized trade relations.
The development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTR), also known as the Middle Corridor—which traverses the Caspian Sea and Caucasus while bypassing Russia—is becoming increasingly crucial. This corridor is intended to transport industrial goods and fossil energy to Europe. In 2023, the U.S. and EU agreed on a partnership to strengthen this corridor. This transit gateway lays a foundation for long-term economic growth in the region and presents opportunities for U.S. business investment. While large-scale military interventions are unlikely under Trump’s administration, there may be an inclination towards enhancing security partnerships or establishing a military presence in regions like Tajikistan. Furthermore, Trump’s administration might adopt a less rigid stance on human rights and democracy issues, potentially fostering closer ties with authoritarian regimes in Central Asia. However, this approach could challenge opposition groups while reinforcing existing power structures.
Emerging Opportunities and Future Prospects
The current United States Strategy for Central Asia (2019-2025) was established during Trump’s first presidency. This strategy aims to cultivate a more stable and prosperous Central Asia that can pursue its political, economic, and security interests independently while connecting with global markets. It aligns with the region’s aspirations for greater strategic autonomy—a characteristic of emerging middle powers—and was predominantly focused on Afghanistan. Afghanistan will continue to play a pivotal role in Trump’s Central Asia policy. Following the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, Washington has not recognized either the Taliban or any other organization as Afghanistan’s government. This situation elevates the importance of Central Asian states as crucial links for monitoring developments in Afghanistan and coordinating ongoing relocations of U.S.-Afghan allies.
In practice, the C5+1 format—initially designed for foreign ministers—was elevated by Biden when he convened leaders from five Central Asian nations in New York in 2023. Since its inception in Samarkand in 2015, no sitting U.S. president had met with this group until Biden’s engagement marked a significant shift in U.S.-Central Asia relations. Till now, no sitting president of the United States has visited Central Asia; on the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made 73 visits while Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited 13 times since 2012. A presidential visit could signify a substantial change in U.S. engagement with the region.
Central Asia’s stability remains closely linked to developments in Afghanistan—a shared concern for both the U.S. and regional states. Initiatives like the Trans-Afghan Railway—which connects northeastern Kazakhstan to Pakistan via Uzbekistan and Afghanistan—are part of a broader strategy aimed at establishing a renewed southern corridor utilizing both land and sea routes that ultimately connect South and Central Asia with Jebel Ali port in the UAE. Such projects promise job creation and enhanced regional trade while highlighting potential collaboration opportunities aimed at fostering stability. A prosperous Afghanistan serves as a direct benefit for Central Asia by alleviating security threats and promoting economic growth—objectives that align closely with U.S. interests moving forward into this new era of engagement with Central Asia under Trump’s leadership.
The Trump administration’s engagement with Central Asia presents a unique opportunity to redefine U.S. policy in the region. The region’s abundant mineral resources, including manganese, chromium, and titanium, are crucial for green technologies and energy transitions. Investing in the region’s energy and mining sectors could strengthen U.S. economic interests while supporting Central Asia’s integration into global markets. By addressing outdated legislation like the Jackson-Vanik amendment, supporting regional stability, and investing in critical industries, the U.S. can strengthen its influence and foster lasting partnerships. However, success will require a nuanced understanding of regional dynamics, a commitment to genuine collaboration, and the willingness to challenge outdated narratives about Central Asia’s geopolitical realities. With the right strategy, the U.S. can unlock the region’s potential while advancing its strategic interests.
[Photo by Vice President JD Vance, via Wikimedia Commons]
*Akanksha Meena is a PhD Scholar at the Centre for Inner Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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