Russia would likely take up to 1.8 million wounded and dead over five years to achieve its goal of fully capturing four major Ukrainian regions, said the new chief of the British Army.
Gen. Sir Roly Walker said he’d based his estimation on the “current rate of attrition of dead and wounded” faced by Moscow’s forces in Ukraine, according to UK media.
He’d been answering questions on Sunday at the 2024 Land Warfare Conference run by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute.
“That puts them probably well north of 1.5 million people — casualties — to achieve that with untold billions of lost equipment,” said Walker, per The Times of London.
“If they carry on as they are, it would probably take the Russians five years to grind their way to their minimum objectives of the four oblasts,” he added, referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
All four regions are under partial Russian control and are in relative deadlock, serving as the war’s eastern and southern fronts after Ukraine repelled the Kremlin’s initial northern assault toward Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin declared the four oblasts part of his nation’s territory in September 2022, and attaining full control of them has been one of Moscow’s major war and negotiation objectives.
Ukraine is adamant that it will not cede any of these territories, two of which — Donetsk and Luhansk — have for years been home to separatist factions.
Per Sky News, Walker emphasized that a drawn-out war would be devastating for both sides.
“There have got to be more things for Russia to worry about than losing the best part of 1.5 to 1.8 million people for a slice of Ukraine with the way the world is going,” he said, per the outlet.
“So, the big if is if the Ukrainian armed forces can keep, sustain the defense that they have,” he added.
Russia has been largely silent on its war losses, but Western estimates put its casualty rate as high as 1,000 soldiers wounded or killed daily.
UK intelligence said in May that Moscow had lost upward of 500,000 troops in the war, later estimating that another 70,000 soldiers were lost in the months after.
Meanwhile, Putin said in June that almost 700,000 Russians are still fighting in Ukraine.
Walker, a former SAS officer who eventually became director of special forces, took on his new role as Chief of the General Staff on June 15.
On Sunday, he said the UK must be ready to go to war in three years, per the BBC.
The British military aims to double its firepower by 2027 and triple its capacity by 2030.
Key to Walker’s concern is that Russia could seek revenge on the UK for its support of Kyiv, regardless of how the war in Ukraine plays out.
“It doesn’t matter how it ends. I think Russia will emerge from it probably weaker objectively, or absolutely, but still very, very dangerous and wanting some form of retribution for what we have done to help Ukraine,” he said, per the BBC.
“The point here is when you think they are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance,” he said, per Sky News.
Analysts fear that Russia can outlast Ukraine’s defense through its aggressive recruitment drives and a defense manufacturing industry that’s kicked into overdrive.
Russia has poured 40% of national spending into defense and security, essentially putting its economy on a war footing.
