- Russia has lost about 3,800 tanks since 2022, compared with about 1,100 for Ukraine, per Oryx estimates.
- In Kursk, Russian tank losses are nearly equal to those of Ukraine, challenging Kyiv’s advantage.
- Ukraine’s dwindling resources and reliance on Western aid hinder its strategic gains in Kursk.
Russia appears to have lost far more tanks than Ukraine since Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor just over three years ago.
Open-source analysts with the Oryx collective estimate that Russia has had about 3,800 tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. The total for Ukraine stands at about 1,100.
The totals include only destroyed vehicles for which photo or videographic evidence is available and may be an underestimate.
Russia is closing the gap in Kursk. In the eight-month battle, launched when Ukrainian forces smashed into the Russian region in August, Ukraine has suffered a higher ratio of tank losses compared to losses on Ukrainian soil.
Russia has lost 66 tanks in Kursk, while Ukraine has lost 55, according to the estimates — a ratio that is not sustainable for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s tank fleet is rapidly modernizing with Western-made Leopard 1s, Leopard 2s, and M-1s, while Russia’s tank fleet is aging as it relies on decades-old models. Russia boasts a greater ability to sustain and replace tanks compared with Ukraine.
While Russia is fielding older tanks from storage, it still has a vast reserve and can continue producing new ones at a rate that allows it to maintain its fighting capability even while not fully compensating for losses.
The near-even loss ratio in Kursk suggests that Ukraine is struggling to maintain the advantage it needs in a war of attrition.
Ukraine requires a much higher kill ratio to degrade Russia’s forces faster than it loses its own, but the battle for Kursk shows that Russia can still inflict similar losses on Ukraine, limiting Kyiv’s strategic gains.
A protracted war where Ukraine cannot sustain its advantage plays into Russia’s favor, as Ukraine has fewer resources and relies heavily on Western aid.
There are also concerns over Ukraine’s ability to get more tanks and other critical hardware from its allies.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said he was pausing all military aid to Ukraine, after a contentious meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. He then backtracked after Ukraine agreed to the terms of a proposed 30-day cease-fire deal with Russia.
Serhiy Rakhmanin, a member of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, told Business Insider earlier this month that Ukrainian forces operating inside Russia, specifically in Kursk, rely on a significant number of American armored vehicles.
Even so, the ongoing conflict has been far less about tank-on-tank warfare and more about the use of drones, which Ukraine has heavily embraced.
Ukraine is losing its grip on Kursk, which is a key bargaining chip against Russia in any negotiations over pausing or ending the war.
As of this week, the town of Sudzha, about five miles from Ukraine’s border, remains Kyiv’s last significant stronghold in the Russian region.
By preventing Ukraine from achieving a decisive breakthrough in Kursk, Putin can frame the battle as a strategic success.
