As the Arctic continues to thaw, geopolitical tensions are heating up, particularly around the remote and strategic archipelago of Svalbard. Located midway between the Norwegian mainland and the North Pole, this cluster of islands spans approximately 62,700 square kilometres. Despite its high latitude, Svalbard enjoys relatively mild climatic conditions, due to the influence of the Gulf Stream, which transports warm waters from the equator to the northern reaches.
Svalbard is officially part of Norway, but it holds a unique international status that grants nationals from various countries specific liberties. Among these, Russia has maintained a longstanding presence on the islands. Given the current volatile international climate, concerns have arisen whether Russia might attempt to assert control over Svalbard through military or hybrid means.
Of late, there have been major developments involving Russia’s plans on Svalbard. Trust Arktikugol, a Russian state-owned company operating on the islands, announced plans to establish an international Arctic science station in collaboration with BRICS nations. This initiative was endorsed by Russia’s Minister for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, signalling Russia’s strategic interest in expanding its influence in the region.
Moscow reiterated its commitment to the project many times. Natalia Golubeva from Russia’s Ministry of Education and Science confirmed that the concept of an international Arctic research centre remains a priority. This announcement came just two weeks after Norway released a White Paper on Svalbard policy, unequivocally stating that the University Centre of Svalbard (UNIS) would be the sole institution permitted to offer higher education on the archipelago under Norwegian sovereignty.
Golubeva’s remarks were made during a working group meeting on oceanic and polar research cooperation within the framework of Russia’s BRICS chairmanship, held in Murmansk. She emphasized that the progression of the Svalbard BRICS science centre now hinges on the political climate and the willingness of all involved parties to support and develop the initiative.
With Norway and Russia both asserting their interests in Svalbard, the region could become a flashpoint in Arctic geopolitics. As the ice melts, the stakes rise, and the world watches closely to see how these two nations engage with their competing ambitions in this strategically vital part of the globe.
Russia’s Arctic Strategy: Building Alliances and Science Centre on Svalbard
Russia is intensifying its presence in the Arctic, particularly on the strategic Svalbard archipelago. Moscow plans to develop an international science complex in the ghost town of Pyramiden, aiming to involve partners from China, India, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—all BRICS nations considered “friendly states” by Russia. This move comes after Russia downgraded Norway’s status from ‘unfriendly’ to ‘very unfriendly’ last August.
As a signatory to the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, Russia retains the right to exploit natural resources on the islands. With coal reserves dwindling in Barentsburg, Russia is shifting focus to broader academic endeavours to sustain its geopolitical foothold. The initiative not only challenges Norway’s University Centre in Longyearbyen but also the international science community in Ny-Ålesund, where China and India are already active in Arctic research.
The Murmansk Marine Biological Institute (MMBI), a branch of the Russian Academy of Science, is a key partner in establishing the new science centre in Pyramiden. Denis Moiseev, MMBI’s deputy science director, expects the centre to be operational this year. Last year, MMBI signed a cooperation agreement with the Polar Research Institute of China, aiming to conduct joint Arctic expeditions, including on Svalbard.
Russia’s ambitious plans for Svalbard include creating a main science centre in Pyramiden, with additional departments in Grumant, Coles Bay, and Barentsburg. The research will encompass various fields such as ethno-humanities, cultural-historical studies, palaeography, and medical biology, offering both field research and practical studies for students year-round. A consortium of research and educational institutions from friendly states will also be established.
Denis Moiseev emphasized that the BRICS centre will serve as an analogue to Norway’s Svalbard International University (UNIS). The Murmansk conference on oceans and polar research saw participation from over 50 scientists from BRICS countries, highlighting the collaborative spirit of this initiative.
Norway and Russia’s Competing Interests in Svalbard
Norway’s Minister of Justice and Public Security, Emilie Enger Mehl, highlighted the significance of maintaining steady governance and reinforcing national control over Svalbard. During a presentation in Longyearbyen, she emphasized the need for a predictable approach to managing the archipelago amidst global changes, as outlined in the government’s new Report to the Storting.
In response to Norway’s position, Russia announced last summer its intention to establish a science complex in Svalbard. This initiative leverages Russia’s rights under the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which allows for the exploitation of natural resources. As coal resources dwindle in Barentsburg, Russia aims to diversify its presence by expanding into academic and research activities.
To counter Russia’s growing influence, the Norwegian government proposed establishing a Svalbard Science Office. This office will enhance Norwegian research management on the archipelago, coordinate research activities, and provide a point of contact for the international research community. The initiative aims to ensure that Norway maintains a strong and clear oversight of research development in Svalbard.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the strategic importance of the Arctic at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, citing the region’s vast untapped mineral resources as crucial for Russia’s future growth. He noted that while the extraction of these resources is challenging and expensive, it holds significant potential for economic development.
It was in this background that Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister issued a warning to Norway regarding its management of Svalbard. He emphasized that Russia would not tolerate any reduction of its rights in the archipelago, framing the issue as a matter of national sovereignty. This statement reflects the heightened geopolitical stakes as both Norway and Russia seek to assert their interests in Svalbard, a region of increasing strategic importance in the Arctic.
Geopolitical Shifts and the Future of Svalbard
Andreas Østhagen, Otto Svendsen, and Max Bergmann wrote a detailed commentary on this issue. According to them, Arctic politics, once characterized by cooperation, has deteriorated significantly. During the Cold War, despite NATO member Norway’s proximity to the Soviet Union, a geopolitical equilibrium prevented clashes in the Arctic. Both sides engaged in significant scientific collaboration. However, the early 2000s saw a rise in Arctic interest among states, including Russia, focusing on economic development and climate research. Alongside, Russia increased its military presence in the region. Post-2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Arctic security tensions rose, further escalating after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia’s closer ties with China have also bolstered Beijing’s claims as a ‘near-Arctic’ state, challenging the seven other Arctic states.
Østhagen et al. noted that this growing geopolitical tension requires careful monitoring by European High North countries, NATO, and the United States. Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago about twice the size of Belgium and strategically located 650 kilometres north of the Norwegian mainland, exemplifies these tensions. Analyzing the geopolitics around Svalbard reveals the complexity of Arctic competition, highlighting the inadequacy of simple conflict/no-conflict scenarios.
According to them, Svalbard’s strategic importance is significant due to its proximity to Russia’s Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula and its rich fish stocks and mineral deposits. Melting ice enhances access to these resources and increases shipping activity. Russia is particularly focused on the Northern Sea Route’s commercial potential, which offers a shortcut between Europe and Asia.
Despite misconceptions about Svalbard’s sovereignty and legal status, Norway retains “full and absolute sovereignty” under the Svalbard Treaty. However, debates persist about Norway’s adherence to the treaty and its implementation. Complaints primarily from Russia focus on restricted helicopter use, environmental regulations, and the use of satellite stations for military purposes.
Norway’s response included establishing a Svalbard Science Office to enhance research management and coordinate activities. This office will liaise with the international research community and produce annual reports on research in Svalbard. Russia’s strategic manoeuvres in Svalbard include expanding academic activities and fostering partnerships with BRICS nations and other “friendly” countries. Tensions have heightened with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister issuing a veiled threat to Norway over Svalbard’s management, framing it as a sovereignty issue akin to the situation in Ukraine.
Despite the complexities, it is crucial to address specific cases like Svalbard to understand the geopolitical dimensions of the Arctic. Norway might work with allies to clarify Svalbard’s legal and political status and address misconceptions about NATO’s territorial security guarantees. This approach will help manage the Arctic’s evolving security landscape and prevent warped narratives.
Russia’s Strategic Presence in the Arctic and Svalbard
Since Russia’s symbolic flag-planting at the North Pole in 2007, interest in Arctic resources has surged among various nations. The Arctic represents not just a potential source of fossil fuels for Russia, but also a significant political stage, with Svalbard being a key area of interest.
Pyramiden, a coal mining town in Svalbard, houses the world’s northernmost statue of Lenin and served as a Soviet showcase during the Cold War. Despite its minimal coal output compared to other regions in Russia, the Kremlin’s goal was more about demonstrating Soviet ideals than resource acquisition.
After the Cold War, many residents left Pyramiden, but Russia maintained a presence there. The establishment of the Svalbard Committee in 2019 by close aides of President Putin indicated Russia’s continued interest in the region. Today, Russia’s activities, such as collecting water and sediment samples, help legitimize its presence in Svalbard and the broader Arctic.
Svalbard still hosts two functioning coal mines. Norway’s Mine No. 7 extended operations to 2025 due to the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The other mine, located near the Russian settlement of Barentsburg, reflects Russia’s ongoing efforts to maintain its foothold in Svalbard despite dwindling reserves.
According to some observers, Russia’s scientific and economic activities in Svalbard are pretexts to sustain its presence for potential geopolitical or military reasons. The Norwegian Intelligence Service warned about Russia’s nuclear capabilities in the Arctic, highlighting Moscow’s view of Western military activity as a threat.
Seven nations, including the US, Canada, Russia, and several Scandinavian countries, have territories within the Arctic Circle. The Arctic Council, which facilitated cooperation among these nations, suspended activities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signalling an end to Arctic collaboration.
Following the invasion, natural resources have gained political importance due to sanctions and energy scarcity. Maintaining an Arctic presence is crucial for Russia to access these resources. As part of Russia’s bastion strategy, Svalbard’s proximity to the Kola Peninsula and its naval and nuclear assets makes it strategically important. Control of Svalbard is thus seen as essential to protect Moscow’s interests in the region. However, Norway and its Atlantic allies are unlikely to allow Moscow to pursue its strategic ambitions unchallenged in the region. Consequently, Svalbard is poised to become a focal point of renewed geopolitical contestation.
[Photo by TUBS, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
K.M. Seethi is ICSSR Senior Fellow and the Academic Advisor of the International Centre for Polar Studies at Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala. He also served as Senior Professor and Dean of International Relations at MGU.
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