When most discussions about European security focus on the Russian threat, they overlook a more insidious risk—one emerging from within the fragile democracies of Eastern Europe. These states, vulnerable to external interventions and internal instability, may ultimately pose a greater challenge to the continent’s stability than any overt military aggression.
As Donald Trump assumes power once again and reconsiders America’s role in the Transatlantic alliance, we are witnessing a new phenomenon of pragmatic recalibration. This shift prompts a hard look at long-standing assumptions: the notion that Russia is the primary destabilizer in the region is increasingly being questioned. Instead, the very fabric of Eastern European democracies—strained by internal political dysfunction and weakened by economic vulnerabilities—appears more susceptible to manipulation and coercion.
Take Ukraine, for example. Its democratic institutions are under severe strain. Elections are being delayed indefinitely, and forced conscription has become a grim reality, undermining the promise of a free and representative government. At a recent Munich Security Conference, JD Vance did not mince words when he urged European Union officials to “clean up their act” and assume greater responsibility for their own neighbourhood. Such calls echo the broader sentiment that Europe must look inward before projecting strength outward.
Compounding the issue is the emerging narrative from Washington. In a Fox News interview with Pete Hegseth where he hesitated to condemn Vladimir Putin outright—a signal that U.S. strategic interests may be prompting a more measured, perhaps even pragmatic, approach toward Russia. But while political rhetoric vacillates, the financial realities are undeniable. Over the past four years, billions of dollars have been funnelled into Ukraine’s military efforts. Yet there is a perplexing disconnect: while data from Congress under the Biden administration confirms these substantial outlays, Ukrainian President Zelensky has publicly acknowledged receiving only a fraction of that support. This gap raises uncomfortable questions about accountability, transparency, and the true cost of relying on external financial aid.
Adding another layer to this complex equation is the strategic significance of Ukraine’s resources. Its rare earth minerals—critical components in modern technologies—have attracted a host of global bidders. In this scenario, financial pragmatism becomes the real winner, potentially turning Ukraine into a bargaining chip in the larger geopolitical contest between the United States and Russia and China. While the Ukrainian government continues to grapple with internal challenges, its strategic assets are quietly being reassessed by international investors, underscoring the tangled interplay of economics and security.
The broader lesson here is clear: European security today cannot be secured solely by countering the traditional military threats posed by Russia. Instead, it requires addressing the vulnerabilities inherent in the democratic institutions of Eastern Europe. European Powers- Germany and France, must encourage reforms and bolster governance in these fragile states. Only by strengthening their internal resilience can Europe hope to create a stable and secure neighbourhood.
In this moment of strategic rethinking, it is essential for policymakers, academics, and citizens alike to question established narratives. The shifting geopolitical landscape demands that we look beyond conventional threats and understand the multifaceted risks—political, economic, and social—that shape our world today. As Europe recalibrates its security strategies in the face of these emerging challenges, one thing is clear: the path to lasting stability lies in addressing the deep-rooted issues within our own backyard.
[Photo by the European Parliament, via Wikimedia Commons]
Nisarg Jani is a Doctoral Candidate at Pandit Deendayal Energy University situated in Gujarat, India. The author is also a Senior Research Staff Member at Geostrata, an independent youth-led think tank and Network for Advanced Studies of Technology Geopolitics (NAST) Fellow 2024-2025 at Takshashila Institution. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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