Pakistan and Afghanistan have a history of conflicted relations since Pakistan’s establishment in 1947. Afghanistan is a neighboring country northwest of Pakistan, sharing a long, porous border known as the Durand Line. However, geopolitical circumstances have shaped their relations despite their shared religious and cultural ties. Afghanistan faced an invasion by the USSR in 1979 and subsequently by the USA in 2001. The USA’s war on terror against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan continued for the next two decades. In 2021, the USA withdrew its forces from Afghanistan and transferred power to the Afghan Taliban.
The withdrawal has led to enduring impacts on both nations, especially Pakistan. With the recent surge in terrorist activities within Pakistan, the re-emergence of the TTP, or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, is a significant worry for officials. This militant group has connections and activities in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan enjoys backing from the Afghan Taliban. Recently, it has become even more dangerous, partly due to its newfound ties with ISKP (Islamic State in Khorasan Province).
TTP has notified the Pakistani government of its plan to enforce sharia laws like those in Afghanistan. To advance their goals, they have persistently targeted military personnel, destabilizing peace in Pakistan. Data indicates that militant attacks surged by 40% in 2024 relative to the previous year, totaling 905 attacks that led to 1,177 fatalities and 1,292 injuries, while the government was able to eliminate only 934 militants. The year 2024 is being labeled the deadliest year for terrorist activity in the last decade.
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have worsened. Pakistan has urged the Afghan government to confront the TTP threat in its territory, but Afghanistan insists that the TTP is primarily a concern for Pakistan’s internal security. In reaction to these militant assaults, Pakistan initiated the counter-insurgency operation “Azm-e-Istehkam” in June of last year to address both internal and external security challenges, mainly originating from Afghanistan. In December 2024, Pakistan also conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan, reportedly resulting in the deaths of TTP members. The Afghan government condemned these strikes and pledged retaliation. As we enter the New Year, KPK and Balochistan have suffered significantly from terrorist activities, reporting 27 incidents in KP and 19 in the former FATA area. Balochistan faced 24 militant attacks.
The danger posed by TTP extends beyond Pakistan. UN reports indicate that Al-Qaida is supporting TTP by training militants close to the Afghan border. Additionally, the suspected alliance between TTP and ISKP may significantly amplify the threat of TTP. Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory posits that threats are more likely to spread to neighbouring regions than across long distances. This helps clarify the potential spillover of the TTP threat across South Asia.
Attacks by TTP militants in Pakistan have led to dire consequences. The nation has endured significant losses, both in terms of invaluable human lives—civilian and military—and in economic terms. The rising tide of terrorism poses extensive repercussions for Pakistan. Although its international standing has improved recently, these assaults have once again threatened its reputation, resulting in diminished interest from foreign investors. Simultaneously, political instability in the country has created an environment where terrorism can thrive. In response to the terrorist attack in Kalat earlier this month, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif emphasized that national unity is crucial to confronting the terrorism challenge.
The need of the hour is indeed unity and a politically stable country that can focus on counter-terrorism operations and strategies. A multifaceted approach is required to manage the menace of terrorism in the country. At the diplomatic level, the Pakistani government must increase dialogue with the Afghan government to find common ground for eradicating terrorist groups. At the tactical level, counter-terrorism strategies need to be revised and rebooted according to the asymmetrical strategies of militant groups. Thorough research and analysis are significant for studying the asymmetrical strategies of the banned groups. Moreover, key regional players in Asia, such as China and Russia, can also play their part in combating and containing terrorism by engaging with Afghanistan. Pakistan is confronting various challenges across economic, political, and social fronts. However, the issue of terrorism must be tackled directly, for without peace, the nation cannot reach its full potential.
[Photo by Weaveravel, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
Tabish Munir is a research scholar at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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