- The Pound Sterling is trading mixed in its key pairs on Monday.
- GBP is rising against the US Dollar as recession concerns haunt USD – versus the Yen it is weakening due to strong Japanese data.
- From a technical perspective, GBP/USD continues rising in an established short-term uptrend.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades mixed in its most heavily traded pairs on Monday despite positive economic data releases of late. The Sterling is gaining against the US Dollar (USD) but trading flat against the Euro (EUR) and falling against the Japanese Yen (JPY). GBP’s recent moves have less to do with news or data out of the UK and more to do with the volatility in its counterparts.
Pound Sterling mixed but resilient after string of positive data
The Pound Sterling is trading mixed at the start of the new week. Recent assessments of the UK economy have been mostly positive, with some economists describing it as striking a “Goldilocks” balance between “not too cold” and “not too hot”.
Headline Inflation is hovering around the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2.0% target, and Services inflation – which thus far has remained particularly high – fell to 5.2% in July from 5.7% previously, working its way back to a long-run average of around 3.5%.
UK Retail Sales data last week showed a rebound in July of 0.5% from a negative 0.9% in June. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2% in Q2 from 4.4% in Q1, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.9% from 0.3% over the same period.
Lower headline inflation and easing in stubbornly high Services inflation led the BoE to cut interest rates at its August meeting to 5.00% from 5.25%. Lower interest rates tend to depress GBP’s value by reducing foreign capital inflows. Market-based gauges of whether interest rates will fall any further are giving a slightly lower than 50% probability of a further 0.25% cut in September. Economists at Capital Economics expect a total of two more 0.25% cuts before the end of the year.
Sterling rises versus the USD but falls against JPY
Against the US Dollar, GBP has risen two tenths of a percent to trade in the 1.2950s on Monday, extending its gains from the previous week. The move comes on the back of broad-based USD weakness, following comments from the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee on Friday, who said that the US labor market and some other leading economic indicators were “flashing warning signs” including rising levels of credit card delinquencies. His words reawakened recession concerns, weighing on the US currency.
EUR/GBP is seesawing between tepid gains and losses with little new information or data to drive either of the currencies in the pair.
The Pound is falling against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after data out of Japan late Sunday evening showed Machinery Orders in Japan rebounding by a stronger-than-expected 2.1% MoM in June after registering a 3.2% decline in the previous month.
Japanese 10-year Government Bond yields rose to 0.9% following the data, helping to support the Yen to which they are highly correlated. The JPY had already been rallying after Japanese GDP data out last week surprised to the upside, showing the economy expanded 0.8% QoQ in Q2, reversing the 0.6% contraction in Q1 and beating expectations of 0.5%.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also surprised markets in July after deciding to raise interest rates from a 0.0% -0.10% band to 0.25% due to increasing inflationary pressures. This comes after successful spring wage negotiations gave workers more disposable income. The expectation is that the BoJ will raise rates even higher before the end of the year.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD continues short-term rally
GBP/USD extends its sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the 4-hour time frame. This indicates the short-term trend is bullish and given “the trend is your friend” it is biased to continue rising.
GBP/USD 4-hour Chart
GBP/USD will probably extend higher to the next target at 1.3042 (July 17 high).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen into the overbought zone, indicating an increasing risk the pair could pull back. Former highs at 1.2940 could provide a support level for any pull back that materializes. The round number of 1.2900 is another level the pair might fall to in the event of a correction.
The medium and longer-term trends remain opaque and more “sideways” than directional, with price action trapped in the range between 1.2300 and 1.3042 since November 2023.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
