- The Pound Sterling falls against the US Dollar below 1.2700 amid weak appeal for risk-sensitive currencies.
- Investors worry that the US economy could enter a recession.
- The British currency will be guided by market speculation for BoE rate cuts.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its downside below 1.2700 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s New York session. The GBP/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar steadies after rebounding from fresh six-month low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 103.00.
The outlook for the US Dollar remains vulnerable as market participants worry about growing speculation of a recession in the United States (US) and an announcement of emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Market expectations of potential US recession grew after a string of weak US economic data. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021, labor demand slowed, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) contracted at a faster pace in July. However, an economy is considered in a technical recession if its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracts consecutively for two quarters, which appears the opposite in the US’s case, knowing that the economy expanded at a pace of 2.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter. The pace at which the US economy grew was double the growth rate recorded for the January-March period.
Also, the US Services PMI, a sector that accounts for two-thirds of the economy, expanded at a faster pace in July after contracting in June. The PMI report showed that activities in the service sector expanded at a faster-than-expected pace of 51.4. Investors anticipated a growth in the Services PMI to 51.0 from the former release of 48.8.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling slides further against US Dollar
- The Pound Sterling remains on the back foot against its major peers but performs strongly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF), as both faced profit-booking on Tuesday. The British currency continues to face pressure from widespread risk aversion.
- Apart from fears of a US slowdown, a likely all-out war between Israel and Iran has also kept risk sentiment on tenterhooks. Fears of escalating Middle East conflicts were prompted after Iran-backed Hezbollah said it launched dozens of missiles on Israel on Saturday in retaliation to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by an Israeli airstrike in Tehran.
- On the domestic front, the Pound Sterling will be guided by market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) amid an absence of top-tier events. Market participants expect that the BoE could also deliver subsequent rate cuts to fight against the ripple effects of the US slowdown.
- Last week, the BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5%, with a 5-4 vote split, as expected. The BoE suggested that the central bank will use a cautious approach in its policy normalization process.
Pound Sterling Price Today:
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| GBP | EUR | USD | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | -0.20% | -0.58% | -0.02% | -0.46% | -0.35% | -0.24% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | -0.38% | 0.16% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.04% | |
| USD | 0.58% | 0.38% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.40% | 0.33% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.16% | -0.55% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.22% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.28% | -0.12% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.16% | -0.24% | 0.30% | -0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.06% | -0.40% | 0.22% | -0.23% | -0.12% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | 0.04% | -0.33% | 0.08% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling drops below 1.2700
The Pound Sterling is at a make-or-break near the lower boundary of a Rising Channel chart formation on a daily timeframe. Historically, a pullback move in the aforementioned chart pattern is considered a buying opportunity by market participants.
The GBP/USD pair fell on the back foot after breaking below the crucial support of 1.2900. The Cable is an inch away from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2790, suggesting uncertainty in the near-term trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines to near 40.00, which is expected to act as a cushion for the momentum oscillator.
On the downside, the round level of 1.2800 will be a crucial support zone for the Pound Sterling bulls. Meanwhile, the two-year high near 1.3140 will be a key resistance zone for the Cable.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
