They haven’t managed to win the season’s final game just yet, but a couple of deep playoff runs the last two years have marked the Philadelphia Phillies as one of baseball’s most dangerous teams. They’ve made these charges largely on the strength of the fearsome one-two punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop their rotation, coupled with a deep, power-hitting lineup fronted by the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos.
At this early stage of the 2024 season, the Phillies have not yet begun to hit. Sure, it’s early, the weather is on the cool side and the ball is not carrying like it will when summer rolls around. They’re racking up some homers, but stood 11th in the NL in runs scored through Saturday’s game, as the bulk of the lineup – especially Castellanos and 2B Bryson Stott – are off to slow starts.
No big deal, however, as the club jumped out to a 13-8 start thanks to some incredible work done by their starting rotation. And it wasn’t particularly due to the efforts of their veteran Big Two – Nola’s been the group’s most hittable member, and before his no-hit bid on Saturday against the lamentable White Sox, Wheeler was sitting at 0-3, mostly due to minimal run support.
It’s been their supporting cast – under-the-radar lefty Cristopher Sanchez, proving that his 2023 star turn was no fluke, a finally healthy Ranger Suarez, who recently accomplished one of the game’s rarer feats, a complete game, and most of all, reclamation project Spencer Turnbull, who has arguably been the game’s best starter in the early going.
This group has combined for a glittering 2.25 ERA in the early going, 2nd in the majors to the Red Sox’ amazing 1.71 mark. It should be noted that the Phils’ Big Five have logged more innings (124 to 116), with more strikeouts (131 to 120) and a better WHIP ( 0.984 to 1.000) than Boston’s group, in one fewer game pitched.
Take a step back and view the scene from a distance – the Phils are playing .619 baseball, two games behind the ever-present Braves, with a lukewarm at best offense. Now this rotation isn’t going to maintain their torrid pace over a full season, but what if this group is five – potentially six – deep, with the impending return of Taijuan Walker to the mix? They might be in the process of joining their Atlanta division-mates and the Dodgers in the elite tier of major league clubs.
Suarez and Sanchez, if healthy, are quality #3/4 starters. But what’s going on with Turnbull? Entering this season, he’d exclusively toiled for the Detroit Tigers in his MLB career. Likely best known for his gruesome 3-17 record in 2019, he was at best a league average range starter in Detroit. Perhaps a little worse than that – he posted a league average K rate and a below average BB rate and contact management performance in just over 200 combined innings in 2019-20.
Over his first nine starts in 2021 he made major strides, cutting his walk rate in half and significantly improving in the contact management department. Unfortunately, he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and Tommy John surgery was required. He missed all of 2022, and the results simply weren’t there in 2023 as he did little more than get his legs back under him again.
The Tigers didn’t see enough to tender him a contract, and he signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Phillies, hoping to rebuild his value and then test the free agent market next offseason after he reaches the six-year service time benchmark. The early returns have been fruitful – he has a 2-0, 1.23, record with a 22/7 K/BB and only 10 hits allowed in 22 innings.
Again, it’s really early, so we can’t get carried away. Plus, his last and best start came against the White Sox, who are a major league team in name only. But while it’s still too soon to unduly rely upon early season batted ball data, we can still get some hints from it as to the authenticity of Turnbull’s early numbers.
So far, Turnbull’s 29 ERA- is way out of synch with his 72 FIP-. Plain and simple, no one is as good as a 1.23 ERA. Based on Turnbull’s batted ball data, he’s been a little better than that FIP- mark, posting a 62 “Tru” ERA- to date.
“Tru”- is my batted ball-based proxy for ERA- and FIP-. Turnbull has done a very good job of managing contact in the early going, and FIP- hasn’t given him enough credit for that. Overall, he has a 67 Adjusted Contact Score – that stat stabilizes quite quickly, and I’m willing to label Turnbull as an above average contact manager already. Toss in above average command and a league average K rate, and I believe Turnbull – at least qualitatively – is an above average MLB starter. We’ll get back to the quantity in a moment.
He’s running an above league average grounder rate and has muffled authority on fly balls, with average fly ball exit speed allowed of 85.7 mph and a 44 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. It’s not just the cool spring air at work here. Overall, he’s allowed an average exit speed of 86.5 mph and an average launch angle of 8.5 degrees. Those are winning, better than league average numbers.
None of this guarantees his spot in the rotation, however. Walker is almost ready for game action, and is owed $54 million over the next three seasons. Logic dictates that he will get his chance. Logic also dictates that expecting Turnbull to carry a 160+ inning workload after logging only 137 2/3 MLB innings since 2019 would be folly. The club is going to manage his usage in the hopes of having him available and effective for the season’s late stages, which they hope again includes a deep postseason run.
Starting pitching is scarcer and more in demand than ever this season, with many of the game’s best going down like flies. The emergence of Spencer Turnbull and the return of Taijuan Walker gives the Phillies an embarrassment of riches that makes the vast majority of major league clubs green with envy. Chances are that the Phils will have their share of injury pitfalls along the way, but they’re more prepared than most to endure them.
