In recent days, analysts and commentators globally have focused on some of the executive orders US President Donald Trump has signed and his announcements pertaining to US foreign policy and the imposition of tariffs on other countries. The question on the mind of many South Asia watchers is Trump’s like policy vis-à-vis Pakistan over the course of the next four years and how it may be different from his previous stint.
Trump 1.0 and US-Pakistan ties
During his previous tenure, Trump had removed aid to Pakistan. In his tweet on January 1, 2018, he said: “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit.”
He also said that Pakistan had given “safe haven” to terrorists. In his current tenure, Trump has suspended assistance to Pakistan temporarily – for re-evaluation. This decision will put a pause on United States Agency For International Development (USAID) projects in Pakistan.
Apart from this, the Trump administration has been critical of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Then US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Alice Wells while commenting on the project said that: “it is going to take a growing toll on the Pakistan economy, especially when the bulk of payments start to come due in the next four to six years.”
Senior officials in the Trump 1.0 had also categorically stated, that it would not allow International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to be used for clearing Chinese debts.
Alice Wells also clarified that CPEC is not about “aid”. Here it would be pertinent to point out, that initially the erstwhile Pakistan Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI) government led by Imran Khan had sought to re-negotiate the terms and conditions. Certain senior officials within the government had raised question marks regarding CPEC and said that the terms and conditions were unfair to Pakistan.
Donald Trump-Imran Khan rapport and the Afghanistan factor
The Trump Administration signed a peace agreement with the Taliban in 2020, which would pave the way for the exit of US troops. Ultimately, US troops exited from Afghanistan in August 2021, after 20 years, and the Taliban took over in August 2021. Pakistan had acted as an intermediary during talks between the US government and Taliban.
During his meeting with then-PM Imran Khan in September 2019 Donald Trump while articulating his policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan said: “We’re like policemen. We’re not fighting a war. If we wanted to fight a war in Afghanistan and win it, I could win it in a week. I just don’t want to kill 10 million people. Does that make sense to you? I don’t want to kill 10 million people.”
Under the Biden Administration, ties between Washington and Islamabad were expected to improve. Instead, they went downhill after Imran Khan’s presence in Russia when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. Imran Khan was removed from office in April 2022 and he blamed the US for his ouster, though later on he did a “U-turn”. The Biden Administration and both Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA) governments led by Shehbaz Sharif shared a reasonable relationship. There was no major change regarding assistance to Pakistan, though the US did provide assistance to the tune of $97 million when Pakistan faced floods in 2022.
Several Trump confidantes have also been pushing for former PM Imran Khan’s release from jail. Many believe that Imran Khan and Trump developed a close rapport. It remains to be seen if the Imran factor has any influence on the Trump administration’s ties with the Shehbaz Sharif-led government in Pakistan.
The China factor in US-Pakistan ties
While Pakistan may not have as much relevance in the context of Afghanistan, ties between both countries have deteriorated significantly ever since the Taliban took over, the China factor will be an important aspect in ties. If Washington-Beijing ties improve or the level of strain reduces, Pakistan will not be placed with the onerous responsibility of balancing ties between Washington and Beijing. While several countries face a similar challenge, but they do not face the same economic challenges with Pakistan faces. Trump has given mixed signals regarding China so far, while he has made some statements that suggest that he is keen to keep a working relationship his past record as President suggests that it is tough to hazard any guesses regarding his approach towards even the most complex of issues. Trump’s cabinet also consists of China hawks. The Trump administration may continue to pressurize Pakistan on its economic links with Pakistan as it had done during its previous tenure. Another, important factor in Pakistan-US ties is likely to be the role of Gulf countries. Gulf countries have close ties with Trump and have shared close relations with Pakistan. UAE and Saudi Arabia could seek to act as intermediaries between the US and Pakistan.
India-Pakistan ties have witnessed a downward spiral in recent years and sections of the Trump administration may attempt to nudge both countries to engage with each other, the US President however is unlikely to exhaust too much of his political capital on the same given the fact that he has several other domestic and foreign policy priorities.
The overall global and South Asian strategic landscape has witnessed significant changes since the previous tenure of Donald Trump. The approach of Trump 2.0 vis-à-vis Pakistan is tough to predict, several other geopolitical dimensions including the China factor would have an important bearing on the Washington-Islamabad relationship.
[Photo by the Trump White House, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based analyst interested in Punjab-Punjab linkages as well as Partition Studies. Maini co-authored ‘Humanity Amidst Insanity: Hope During and After the Indo-Pak Partition’ (New Delhi: UBSPD, 2008) with Tahir Malik and Ali Farooq Malik. He can be reached at [email protected].
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