- NZD/USD declined to from 0.6250 after a strong recovery in the US Dollar.
- Annual US core PCE inflation is estimated to have accelerated to 2.7% in July.
- The RBNZ is expected to deliver more interest rate cuts this year.
The NZD/USD pair drops after facing selling pressure near 0.6250 in Wednesday’s North American session. The Kiwi asset falls as the US Dollar (USD) recovers strongly after posting a fresh annual low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its recovery above 101.00 from its year-to-date low (YTD) low of 100.50.
A decent recovery in the US Dollar appears to be bolstered by uncertainty among market participants as the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (PCE) for July comes under the spotlight. This has also weighed on risk-sensitive assets.
Investors await the US PCE inflation data to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut path. Currently, traders have fully priced in market expectations for the Fed to start reducing its key borrowing rates in September, while they are doubtful over whether the potential size of the rate cut would be 25 or 50 basis points (bps).
The data from the US PCE report is expected to show that annual core inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.7% from 2.6% in June, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.2%.
Meanwhile, investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), but the Kiwi’s performance against other major peers has remained firm even though market participants expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates aggressively this year. The RBNZ unexpectedly pivoted to policy-normalization two weeks back.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
