- Mexican Peso weakens against US Dollar, with USD/MXN climbing 0.74% following mixed Mexican inflation report, robust US Durable Goods Orders.
- Mexico’s CPI for mid-April shows mixed signals, potentially influencing Banxico’s upcoming rate decision in May.
- USD/MXN gains momentum past the 17.00 mark as Treasury yields rise, underscoring stronger demand for Greenback.
The Mexican Peso weakens on Wednesday as the North American session begins, following a mixed inflation report for the first half of April. Mexico’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose above expectations, while underlying CPI declined sharply. An upbeat Durable Goods report in the United States (US) sponsored a leg up in the exotic pair. The USD/MXN trades at 17.11, 0.94% above its opening price, after bouncing off weekly lows at 16.90.
Mexico’s National Statistics Agency (INEGI) revealed that mid-month inflation rose above estimates and March’s reading on a yearly basis. In the meantime, the annual Core CPI number was below last month’s data. The mixed reading would prevent the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) from cutting rates at the May meeting.
Across the border, the US Commerce Department revealed that Durable Goods Orders rose above estimates, while core orders improved compared to February’s reading but missed forecasts.
After the data, the USD/MXN broke above the 17.00 figure and extended its gains. The rise in US Treasury yields lent a lifeline to the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), rose 0.24% at the brink of reclaiming the 106.00 threshold.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso depreciates following strong Durable Goods Orders
- Mexico’s National Statistics Agency (INEGI) revealed that mid-month CPI rose by 4.63% YoY, above March’s reading and estimate of 4.48%. Monthly, inflation increased 0.09%, missing forecasts of 0.03%.
- The core CPI edged lower compared to last month’s figures. It rose by 4.39% YoY as expected, down from 4.69%, a 0.3% decrease. MoM data showed that core prices rose 0.16%, aligned with estimates.
- Citibanamex Survey showed that most analysts expect Banxico to hold rates unchanged at the May meeting. The median foresees a rate cut in June, while they estimate the main reference rate to end at 10.00%, up from 9.63% previously.
- Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said that service inflation is not slowing as expected. She added that the Peso’s strength has helped to temper inflationary pressures and lower imported goods. She emphasized that Banxico would remain data-dependent.
- Mexico’s economy is faring well as Economic Activity expanded in February compared to January’s data. Figures increased by 1.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY in the second month of the year, up from January’s 0.9% and 1.9% expansion, respectively.
- US Durable Goods Orders in March expanded by 2.6% MoM, up from 0.7%, and exceeded forecasts of 2.5%. Excluding Transport, they increased 0.2% MoM, higher than February’s 0.1% but missed projections of 0.3%.
- Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests that traders expect the Fed funds rate to finish 2024 at 4.98%, up from 4.965% on Tuesday.
Technical analysis: Mexican Peso on backfoot as USD/MXN rallies toward 200-day SMA
The Mexican Peso loses traction as the USD/MXN aims toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.16. Once surpassed, this SMA clears the way for buyers to push prices toward the January 23 high at 17.38. The next resistance would be December 5’s 17.56 and the 18.00 figure.
Although the exotic pair trades below the 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum is growing, which means that shorts are vulnerable to a short squeeze.
On the other hand, if USD/MXN edged below the 17.00 figure, that would open the way to testing the 100-day SMA at 16.96. A breach of the latter would expose the 50-day SMA at 16.81.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
