Market Data 
- Mexican Peso slumps 0.94% as risk sentiment turns bearish on trade fears.
- US President Trump targets autos, pharma and computer chips with 25% tariffs.
- US Dollar Index hits four-day high as Fed signals caution on rate cuts.
- Banxico-Fed policy divergence favors further MXN weakness; traders eye Mexico Retail Sales, Banxico minutes.
The Mexican Peso lost ground and slumped to a two-day low against the Greenback on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump targeted tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and computer chips. Meanwhile, the Fed revealed its latest meeting minutes, which maintained the “status quo” but sponsored a leg up in the USD/MXN pair, which rises 0.94% and trades at 20.43.
The minutes showed that Fed officials judged the dual mandate risks to be roughly balanced, while “some participants cited potential changes in trade and immigration policy as having the potential to hinder the disinflation process.” Participants noted that some measures of inflation expectations “had increased recently.”
Market mood shifted negative amid a new round of Trump tariffs, which now include duties of around 25% on cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. with an announcement as soon as April 2. This boosted the Greenback, which according to the US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a four-day peak of 107.32.
In the meantime, US housing data revealed earlier was mixed. Housing Starts plunged, while Building Permits maintained the “status quo.” Now eyes turn to the Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first monetary policy meeting of 2025.
The Fed turned more cautious after the latest inflation readings, suggesting that policy is not as restrictive as they thought. The rise of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for five straight months might prevent the US central bank from cutting interest rates, at least for the first half of 2025.
Therefore, further USD/MXN upside is projected as monetary policy divergence between Banxico and the Fed favors further USD/MXN upside. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady, while Banxico is expected to cut rates again by 50 basis points at the next meeting.
Meanwhile, traders are eyeing the release of Mexico’s Retail Sales for December, which are expected to deteriorate on a monthly basis but improve despite contracting annually. After that, Banxico’s latest monetary policy minutes will be revealed.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso treads water amid risk aversion
- Mexico’s Retail Sales in December are expected to show the economic slowdown. The final GDP reading for Q4 2024 is expected to show a contraction on a quarterly basis and is foreseen expanding annually.
- Meanwhile, investors await Banxico’s minutes, which will help them gather clues about the intention of reducing rates at a 50 basis point (bps) pace during the year.
- US Housing Starts in January dropped from 1.515 million to 1.366 million, or a 9.6% plunge, due to weather disruptions. At the same time, US Building Permits for the same period improved with figures rising from 1.482 million to 1.483 million, a 0.1% increase.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “Policy needs to remain restrictive until…I see that we are really continuing to make progress on inflation.”
- According to the December 2025 fed funds interest rate futures contract, the swaps market suggests that the Fed will reduce rates by 40 basis points toward year-end.
- Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February.
USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso plunges as USD/MXN rises toward 50-day SMA
The USD/MXN uptrend resumed as the exotic pair tested the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.22 but failed to clear the latter. Momentum favors buyers in the short term due to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being in bearish territory.
Therefore, bulls must clear the 50-day SMA at 20.57, before targeting the January 117 peak at 20.93. Once surpassed, traders could target the year-to-date (YTD) high at 21.28, ahead of challenging 21.46. Conversely, if USD/MXN drops beneath the 100-day SMA, look for a fall to test the 20.00 figure.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
