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This past off-season, the Texas Rangers signed Joc Pederson to provide additional power from the left side of the plate. Pederson was coming off of a season in Arizona where he slashed .275/.393/.515, with 23 home runs. He did most of his damage – 22 homers and a .923 OPS – against right-handed pitching, so he added balance to what everyone anticipated to be a potent Rangers offense.
Brandon Marsh has never been the offensive juggernaut that Pederson is, with only 42 careers home runs and a 102 OPS+. But he plays a very good defensive center field, and has been in the positive in Statcast’s “Outs Above Average” every season other than 2024 (when he was -1). The Phillies don’t have much depth in their outfield, so they have been looking to Marsh to play consistent defense and find his way at the plate. Even an average performance – with a lineup filled with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto – would be enough.
Unfortunately for both Pederson and Marsh, both are mired in slumps that could see them being permanently removed from their respective lineups (Marsh has missed the past three games with a tweaked knee).
Pederson hasn’t had a hit since an infield single against Hunter Greene in the top of the fourth inning of the Rangers game against the Cincinnati Reds on April 2nd. That ball left the bat at 49.1 MPH. Since then he has gone 0-for-36 with just three walks against 11 strikeouts. On April 8th he lined a ball 103.5 MPH for an out to left. In consecutive at-bats over two games, on April 13th and then the 16th, he hit balls 106.3 and 105.7 MPH, to no avail. And then the next day he turned around a 97.5 MPH pitch for a hard (108.3 MPH) out to right. To date, he has nothing to show for it.
Marsh it yet to record a hit in April. His last hit was single in the seventh inning of the Phillies March 30th game against the Washington Nationals. Since that time, over 14 games, he is 0-for-31, with five walks. In 38 plate appearances, he has hit only two balls with an exit velocity more than 100 MPH.
Baseball – and hitting in particular – is a game of failure. Players are going to go through good times and bad. Slumps are part of the sport, and the great ones find their way out. Prior to this season, there have been at least ten instances in which a batter (excluding pitchers) has gone 30 or more at-bats without recording a hit. Chris Davis’ streak over the 2018-19 seasons is the most recent, most famous, and most futile, as he came to the plate 54 consecutive times without getting a hit.
Over the 2010-11 seasons, Eugenio Vélez went 46 consecutive at-bats without a hit. But he played for a total of five seasons and ended his career with a -1.5 bWAR, so these results are not that shocking.
There is a three-way tie for the next level of ineffectiveness – 45 at bats: Bill Bergen in 1909; Dave Campbell in 1973; and the current manager of the Chicago Cubs, Craig Counsell did it in 2011. Counsell was never a great hitter, but he did bat over .300 once (.316 in 2000) and hit .299 (1997) and .285 (2009). He didn’t hit for power (never in double digits in homers), so making content and scratching out a hit should not have been that hard. But, like Ron Washington says in Moneyball, “it’s incredibly hard.”
Some of Pederson’s struggles could have been foreseen. He tends to be a feast of famine proposition at the plate. His strikeout percentage has been above league average nearly every year of his career. His BAbip has been below league average in nine of his previous eleven seasons. But this level of failure is beyond what anyone could have expected. And the Rangers are going to need him to right the ship if they want to contend in what is quickly and quietly becoming a competitive American League West.
Marsh is an enigma. He has never hit more than 16 home runs in a season, and yet his strikeout rate is always 30% or higher. His career batting average is .252, but his career BAbip is .367. He is in the 65th percentile in sprint speed. All of this leads one to believe that he should be able to find grass in the outfield or be able to beat out a slow roller at some point over nearly three weeks. And yet, baseball is incredibly hard.
The Phillies don’t need Marsh to hit for them to win in the ultra-competitive National League East. But it sure would help. And if he doesn’t turn things around, there is no doubt that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will look to bolster the lineup around the trade deadline.
It is a holy weekend. Maybe some divine intervention can help Pederson and Marsh get off the schneid.
