MILAN (Reuters) – The Italian economy will expand by 0.8% this year and by 0.9% in 2025, the country’s central bank said on Friday, confirming an estimate made in July for 2024 and raising slightly the one for next year.
The forecasts are below those of the Italian government, which officially forecasts growth of 1.0% this year and 1.2% in 2025.
Under the central bank’s previous projections the euro zone’s third-largest economy was seen growing by 0.8% both this year and next.
The forecasts are not adjusted for the number of days worked each year, in line with the methodology used by the government, the European Union and other bodies for international comparisons.
If adjusted for the number of days worked, the Bank of Italy said in its quarterly bulletin that growth this year would be just 0.6%, accelerating to 1.0% next year.
Last month national statistics institute ISTAT revised down Italy’s 2023 growth rate to 0.7% from 0.9%, and Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told parliament this week that this year’s government goal of 1% now looked difficult to reach.
That echoed comments made the day before by the Bank of Italy and Rome’s parliamentary budget watchdog.
Rome’s average EU-harmonised inflation rate should come in this year at 1.1%, the central bank said, unchanged from its July projection.
The central bank saw the inflation rate rising to 1.6% in 2025, against its previous estimate of 1.5%.
The bank said its estimates were based on information available up to October 4, and therefore incorporated ISTAT’s latest revisions.
