If history is any indication, residence and citizenship by investment (RCBI) schemes invariably do more harm than good to the jurisdictions that dip their toes into this glorified racket.
In a bid to service the United States’ proliferating $36 trillion national debt by generating “sovereign equity”, President Donald Trump recently came up with an unoriginal proposal to expeditiously naturalise ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) foreign investors. As per his executive order, those willing to part ways with $5 million – irrespective of nationality – will not just be granted the right to remain in the U.S. indefinitely but also fast-track American citizenship. If anything, Trump’s ‘on the fly’ announcement breathed new life into the atrophied Investment Migration (IM) industry, which was estimated to be worth $22 billion annually in its pre-war heydays.
Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, EU member states commoditising long-term residence permits have faced intense pressure from Brussels to scrap their respective ‘Golden Visas’ entirely or, at the very least, bar Russian and Belarusian applicants. Meanwhile, Caribbean and Oceanic ‘Annex II’ micro-states purveying the sale of passports in return for non-recoverable donations of $130-250k risk forgoing visa-free access to the Schengen Area – a move that would greatly undermine the value proposition of these otherwise unenviable travel documents.
The little-known, far-flung archipelagic nation of Vanuatu, which runs its own dubious citizenship-by-investmen (CBI) scheme, was made an example of by the European Council in late 2024 when entry requirements to the ‘world’s largest borderless zone’ were permanently reinstated for its nationals. The lax, inadequate screening of deep-pocketed newcomers by governments with active RCBI programs in place has enabled crypto scammers, international fugitives and other unsavoury figures to launder their identities and enjoy enhanced mobility privileges as a result.
Should the Trump administration end up launching a gold card in lieu of the existing yet unwieldy EB-5 visa, Kremlin-affiliated frontmen and surrogates will likely constitute the lion’s share of takers for a poorly-thought-out initiative of this kind. Needless to say, the steep asking price and subsequent transfer of funds from Moscow to Washington will entail major sanctions relief as well as the inevitable rehabilitation of Russian state-owned banks that remain cut-off from global capital markets. Moreover, giving Putin’s foot soldiers the opportunity to establish a sense of belonging in arguably the most coveted Western destination for resettlement purposes would render EU-movement restrictions levied against them null and void.
Rather, this highly controversial decision will turbocharge the recommencement of people-to-people exchanges between both nuclear superpowers and further ice out the ‘Eurocrats’ from negotiations on bringing the Russo-Ukrainian conflict to a mutually-palatable end. The ensuing influx of wealthy Muscovites will almost certainly be considered a net benefit to society by Trump who, in turn and by virtue of his transactional nature, is bound to sacrifice European security interests at the altar of Putin’s maximalist demands.
That said, it is not just Russian oligarchs who could take advantage of his mercantilist and elitist approach to immigration but also Chinese and Iranian citizens of means keen to distance themselves from their countries’ accessorial role in Russia’s continued, unprovoked bloodletting. Aside from the problematic clientele the U.S. gold card might attract, the current administration’s sweeping transformation of ‘impatriation’—from a merit-based system to a profit-driven model—sets a dangerous precedent.
Other like-minded democracies that boast robust rule of law and offer inhabitants high living standards now have license to introduce their own exorbitantly expensive pathways to permanent residency or naturalisation, notwithstanding how incongruous this practice happens to be with Western values. Worse still, Trump’s grand plans to monetise worldly Russians’ growing appetite for ‘domicile diversification’ as Ukraine ‘brings the war home’ is a shot in the arm for IM practitioners whose businesses were practically on life support amid a cascade of RCBI program closures over the past few years.
One notable example is Cyprus’ defunct €2.5 million ‘golden passport’ scheme which had been abolished after an undercover investigation carried out by Al Jazeera in mid-2020 lay bare how senior Cypriot officials cut corners to illegally onboard politically-exposed persons (PEPs) and known criminals. Of the roughly 2500 ‘cash-for-passport’ beneficiaries from September 2017 to November 2019, more than 1000 were Russian-born. Late last year, the Mediterranean statelet revoked the ill-gotten nationality of 77 individuals, including billionaire metals baron Oleg Deripaska and ex-FSB operative Sergey Kovbasyuk in an open acknowledgment that checks and balances were wilfully bypassed to issue them Cypriot citizenship.
Thanks to its $400k CBI option, political neutrality and strategic location, Türkiye has similarly emerged as a go-to haven for high-profile Russian second home seekers booted out of legacy Western capitals like former Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich. In the first four months of the “special military operation”, around 5000 Russian nationals acquired Turkish passports via property purchases – many of whom incidentally did so to gain ‘back door’ admission to the United States through the E-2 investor visa citizens of Türkiye are eligible for.
With Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) passports off-limits and convinced that Europe is too far gone and overwhelmed by decadent postmodernism, Russians on the move are no longer spoilt for choice. A ‘green card for the rich’ championed by Trump is a godsend to this Atlanticist cohort, which identifies strongly with MAGA’s conservative crusade and pushback against militant wokeism. As such, those with surplus income from an increasingly dystopian and unliveable Russia will doubtless be prepared to pay top-dollar for the sake of realising their ‘American Dream’. Having already approved the appointment of incoming Russian Ambassador Alexander Darchiev and floated the resumption of direct flights between Moscow and New York, the GOP’s grift operation aimed at making it much easier for Putin’s inner circle cronies to settle down in the United States will only add impetus to an unholy alliance in the offing that comes at Ukraine’s expense.
Saahil Menon is an investment analyst based in Dubai. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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