- Iraq looms as a key test of the US’s priorities for countering Iranian power in the region.
- About 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq with a focus on assisting partners with countering ISIS.
- Iran holds tremendous sway with Iraqi armed groups and government leaders.
Iraq looms as a complex test for the new Trump administration.
Will it be a hawk that pries loose a weakened Iran’s grip or an isolationist that withdraws the remaining American troops, whose presence dates to the war that President Donald Trump once called a “big, fat mistake?”
Iraqi officials recognized the new administration could be a turning point. The prime minister has called for strengthening ties with the US and stalled calls for a phased withdrawal of US troops from the country following the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in neighboring Syria.
“The major changes in the balance of power within the region — coupled with President Trump’s reappointment — mean that Iraq’s government wants the reassurance of US troop presence in Syria and facing Syria from Al-Asad,” Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at the Washington Institute think tank, told Business Insider.
Al-Asad is an enormous airbase in Iraq’s western border province of Anbar that hosts US troops. Pulling them out strengthens Iran’s hand and risks giving ISIS remnants a chance to resurge.
“Everyone remembers how the rise of ISIS began with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq last time in 2011,” Knights said. “The Iraqi leadership also wants to be a good partner to the US, and evicting US forces is not a good way to start.”
Iraq proved a pivotal flashpoint in Trump’s first term. He ordered the assassination of a top Iranian general there, who was killed along with the commander of the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at US troops at Al-Asad, injuring over 100 American personnel.
Upon Trump’s inauguration this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani sent his congratulations and said his country seeks strengthened relations. But that overture faces hard realities: Sudani leads a pro-Iran coalition that may have little appetite or power to disarm Iran-backed militias.
“No one can honestly say Iraq is today balanced between Iran and the US when the government of Iraq was appointed by Iran-backed militias who won a minority of seats in the 2021 elections,” Knights said. “Iraq’s government, intelligence services, and economy are now riddled with Iran-backed militias — and that has to change before President Trump’s team sees Iraq as a trusted friend again.”
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein recently told Reuters that Baghdad is trying to convince powerful Shiite militias in the country to disarm or join the Iraqi Security Forces. He noted it would have been “impossible to discuss this topic” in Iraq two years ago.
The PMF is an umbrella of predominantly Shiite Iraqi militias formed in 2014 to fight ISIS. It includes powerful factions loyal to Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah, that serve Tehran’s interests in the region first and foremost.
“There is a genuine need to rein in the Popular Mobilization Forces before it gets too rich and powerful to control — as the Revolutionary Guard did inside Iran,” Knights said.
Many of these pro-Iran militias have operated under the umbrella of the self-styled Islamic Resistance of Iraq since the current Middle East conflict began in October 2023. They have attacked US troops in Iraq and Syria and targeted Israel with cruise missiles and drones. The US blamed them for a deadly drone attack on a US outpost in Jordan.
“I believe disarming these groups affiliated with Tehran is not a decision the Iraqi government can make independently,” Lawk Ghafuri, an independent Iraq analyst based in Erbil, told BI. “It is a far more complex issue, as these groups are entirely controlled by Tehran, leaving Iraq with limited influence over their future.”
The PMF have good relations with Sudani’s ruling Coordination Framework, further complicating any serious effort to disarm them or bring them firmly under state control. However, doing so may become necessary if Iraq wants better US relations or a powerful ally to check ISIS’s attempts to regroup.
“The Iraqi media is awash in reports that the ruling Coordination Framework is worried that Iraq will be punished by the Trump administration for its ties to Iran,” Joel Wing, author of the authoritative Musings on Iraq blog, told BI. “There is talk of sanctions and military strikes against pro-Iran PMF factions.”
“Even before that, the Sudani government was talking about extending the stay of US troops in Iraq because of fears of what might happen in Syria after the fall of Assad,” Wing said. “Baghdad would like American military support if things went bad.”
In September 2024, the US announced a “two-phase transition plan” to wrap up the counter-ISIS coalition operations in Iraq, which began in 2014. US troops will withdraw from certain parts of Iraq by September 2025 under the first phase but continue supporting anti-ISIS operations in Syria from Iraqi soil until at least September 2026.
“I think Baghdad might settle for simply removing the Coalition wrapper or label but leaving US troops in place as a bilateral mission, even in Al-Asad and Baghdad,” Knights said. “It is worth remembering that US forces in Baghdad airport allow the US embassy, NATO and other diplomatic missions to keep operating because they have an assured line of supply and evacuation.”
The pro-Iran factions are already part of the PMF, receive government paychecks, and have members in parliament yet still resist Baghdad’s authority. Options include disarmament or integrating them into the Iraqi military.
“None of these moves will have any meaningful impact upon the Resistance as they have always followed their own leaders and Iran rather than Baghdad,” Wing said.
Assad’s fall and Israel’s recent offensive against its main proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, were major strategic setbacks for Iran. Tehran undoubtedly wants to avoid a similar setback in neighboring Iraq.
“While Tehran’s influence may have weakened regionally, it remains strong in Iraq,” Ghafuri said. “Disarming or integrating these groups into the Iraqi national army would not diminish Tehran’s power.”
Knights anticipates Tehran will try to hold onto Iraq since Baghdad serves as a “cash cow” for its various regional militias and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Wing also pointed out that Iraq is dependent on Iran for crucial imports such as natural gas and electricity, making it almost impossible to separate the neighbors.
“The Iranian regime cannot afford another domino to fall after Hamas and Hezbollah and Assad,” Knights said.
“This is why the US needs to fight hard to keep up the momentum and continue to roll back Iran’s influence in Iraq in the coming years, one official and one institution and one dollar at a time.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
