Earlier this week, on Oct. 24, Indonesia’s newly minted foreign minister, Sugiono, announced that Indonesia is seeking full membership in the BRICS alliance – an economic coalition comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, among other countries – signalling a potentially transformative pivot in its foreign policy. Amidst ever-evolving and intensifying geopolitical developments, the move to seek full membership is a strategic calculation which not only situates Indonesia within a broader regional and international multilateral network, but also underscores the nuanced domestic and regional ambitions of Prabowo Subianto’s administration.
Economic Opportunities
During the BRICS summit, Sugiono mentioned that the BRICS membership aligns with key policy priorities under Prabowo’s agenda, “especially with regard to food and energy security, poverty eradication and the advancement of human resources,” offering opportunities for economic growth and resilience. The ambition to seek full membership also ought to be contextualised alongside Prabowo’s pledge to achieve eight per cent economic growth in his first term and Indonesia’s more broader goal to attain high-income status by 2045. If Indonesia becomes a full member of BRICS, it could access expanded international markets and investment avenues to boost its food and energy security—a pressing need given global supply chain disruptions intensified by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. BRICS’s New Development Bank could also offer fiscal support for sustainable infrastructure to promote inclusive growth, especially in rural areas. Tapping on BRICS’s commitment to advancing human resources across the Global South, Indonesia could strengthen its workforce by fostering partnerships in technology, healthcare, and education via its multilateral networks, solidifying Indonesia’s self-sufficiency. Thus, the economic case for Indonesia to seek full membership is seeming strong given the abundant opportunities for economic growth.
Regional Implications
As the region’s de facto leader, Indonesia has traditionally championed the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the core of regional diplomacy. However, Indonesia’s deepening involvement in BRICS may raise questions about its commitment to the bloc’s principles of consensus and neutrality, especially if Indonesia’s future participation in BRICS leads it to adopt positions that diverge from ASEAN. Indonesia’s ambition to seek full BRICS membership might also indicate its desire to engage with global powers such as China and Russia more directly on issues ranging from trade and security to technology and environment, possibly sidelining ASEAN as a primary diplomatic channel for addressing pressing issues concerning the region. Concomitantly, doing so might undermine ASEAN’s influence in multilateral issues, prompting smaller ASEAN states to recalibrate their foreign policies to ensure that their strategic aims are not overshadowed by Indonesia.
Indonesia’s interest in seeking full membership may also result in two possibilities among ASEAN states. Firstly, Indonesia’s potential alignment with BRICS may encourage other Southeast Asian countries to explore partnerships outside the ASEAN framework. Malaysia is currently also seeking to be a full member of BRICS, but this could encourage other ASEAN states to consider joining the alliance or deepen ties with the West to counter the influence of China and Russia. Secondly, Indonesia’s potential alignment with BRICS might lead to more polarisation within ASEAN, creating a rift within the organisation where several members maintain close relations with the United States and its allies. Both outcomes will likely shape regional dynamics and relations between ASEAN states that remains to be seen.
Geopolitical Leveraging and Its Complications
Globally, Indonesia’s interest in BRICS is timely, aligning with its aspirations to amplify its global political clout in an increasingly polarized geopolitical landscape. As wars rage in occupied Palestine and Ukraine, global perception of Western-led international frameworks, which have failed to address the grievances of countries in the Global South or provide balanced approaches to conflicts adversely affecting smaller states, has been steadily declining. For Indonesia – a state historically rooted in non-alignment and peace advocacy – BRICS presents a valuable alternative, enabling it to assert and amplify a stronger foreign policy position. Indonesia’s status as one of the world’s most populous and largest Muslim-majority nations is notable, implying that Indonesia can leverage BRICS to advocate for a more inclusive and multipolar order that resonates with its position on issues such as Palestinian self-determination. With BRICS members such as China and Russia already critical of the West, Indonesia’s full membership would allow it to intensify its call for global reforms, notably in addressing conflicts and ensuring voices from the Global South are heard internationally. Joining BRICS thus offers Indonesia a unique opportunity to navigate pressing global tensions on its own terms and advance its foreign policy interests without being solely tethered to Western-aligned constraints.
However, the path to full membership is fraught with complex considerations. For one, within BRICS, economic powerhouses such as China shape the coalition’s agenda, often prioritising aims that align with their strategic interests. It certainly does not help that China and Indonesia have existing tensions over the South China Sea. On 24 October, Indonesia reported that it drove out a Chinese coast guard vessel from the hotly contested waters in the South China Sea twice, raising the propensity for strained political relations between the two nations. In 2020, Indonesia deployed several fighter jets and warships to patrol the Natuna islands waters in “a spat” with China after Chinese vessels entered the vicinity. If Indonesia joins BRICS, it will have to tactically navigate its complex relationship with China, given Chinese dominance. Balancing its commitment to BRICS cooperation alongside its need to assert sovereignty over its maritime territories could put Indonesia in a delicate position, as it may have to manage potential Chinese pressure within the organization. As BRICS expands, Indonesia may find itself in a bind, attempting to leveraging economic opportunities whilst diplomatically managing territorial disputes – a balancing move that may curtail its ability to freely assert its regional concerns with other member states of the alliance.
Indonesia’s journey towards full BRICS membership foregrounds its ambitions to seize economic opportunities and possibly rely on other diplomatic channels to engage global powers. As Indonesia steps into this complex landscape, its approach to engaging with BRICS while retaining influence in ASEAN will shape its regional and global trajectory in the years to come.
[Photo by kremlin.ru]
Mohamed Fayyaz is an Advisory Analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI). From his role at TBI, he brings a unique blend of political insight, strategic advisory experience, and a passion for advancing impactful solutions across the Asia Pacific region. His academic background includes a Bachelor of Social Sciences (Highest Distinction) in Political Science from the National University of Singapore (’22) and an MPhil in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge (’24), where he honed his expertise in global political dynamics and geopolitical analysis with a special interest in maritime Southeast Asia. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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