- The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has raised questions about Russia’s future in Syria.
- Russia has long enjoyed a military footprint at two key bases in the country.
- New satellite images show what Moscow’s warships and aircraft are doing now.
Newly captured satellite imagery shows what the Russian military in Syria is doing following the collapse of the Assad regime.
The images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show Russian aircraft are still present at the Khmeimim airbase, but Moscow’s warships are no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.
Russia supported Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar Assad, in his brutal civil war. But Moscow’s military footprint in the country fell into uncertainty over the weekend after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Assad following a rapid offensive that lasted just days. Assad has since fled to Moscow.
The Kremlin relies heavily on its bases in Syria to project its power, and losing them would be a major setback, not something that Russia needs amid its war in Ukraine. Tartus is Russia’s main naval base abroad, and it provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Meanwhile, Moscow uses Khmeimim to shuttle military forces in and out of Africa.
A satellite image captured on Monday shows Russian aircraft, helicopters, and military equipment at the Khmeimim airbase near the coastal city of Latakia. At the adjacent civilian Bassel Al-Assad International Airport, lots of activity was spotted.
It is unclear at this time if assets have already left and whether Russia will hold its position at this base.
Imagery captured on Tuesday shows that Russia’s warships missing from its naval facility in Tartus, a port city located on the Mediterranean Sea. At least two frigates were spotted several miles off the coast.
Five Russian surface vessels — three frigates and two replenishment oilers — and a submarine were spotted at the Tartus base earlier in the week, but they had left the facility by Monday and were still gone the next day.
It’s unclear if and when the warships will return to port; their presence out in the Mediterranean could be for safety reasons amid all the uncertainty on land rather than a full evacuation from Tartus.
The new imagery comes amid questions over Russia’s future control of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases, which it has held for years. The country’s defense ministry has not publicly signaled any major force posture changes.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said that Moscow was withdrawing from its bases and evacuating its forces. BI was unable to confirm this independently.
The Kremlin said that it is taking steps to ensure the security of its bases through conversations with the new Syrian leadership as details of the transition government become clearer. Russian state media has said rebel forces control the province where its facilities are located.
If Russia is unable to retain access to these bases, it could spell trouble for Moscow in the region.
Conflict analysts with the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, wrote in an assessment on Monday that “the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO’s southern flank, and operate in Africa.”
