A prominent analyst shows XRP market cap replicating its 2017 run against the PHLX gold and silver index, with a potential 1,000% run looming.
XRP has struggled over the past few weeks due to the broader market’s persistent turbulence. With prices tumbling from the $3 mark to just below the $2.6 region, XRP’s market cap has also collapsed from a high of $175 billion at the start of February to the current figure of $149 billion.
The XRP/XAU Pair
Interestingly, market analyst EGRAG, in his recent report, analyzed XRP’s market cap performance against the Philadelphia (PHLX) gold and silver sector index. For context, this index trades on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and tracks the stocks of 30 precious metal mining firms.
Notably, the Philadelphia gold and silver sector index trades with the ticker XAU, the same ticker for gold ounce, and this can be rather confusing for some traders. However, it is important to carefully note this. EGRAG’s chart shows the XRP/XAU pair, which essentially translates to XRP market cap against the index.
The analyst pointed out that whenever the index (XAU) drops in dollar terms, the price of XRP against the index increases, and this has an effect on XRP price in dollar terms.
XRP Bounces Off Equilibrium and 7-Month MA
According to him, XRP price against XAU appears to have bounced above an equilibrium phase after a massive collapse that occurred this month. This collapse was due to XRP’s sudden price crash to $1.7 in what many have considered a strange market movement.
XRPXAU 1M Chart | EGRAG Crypto
This crash in XRP price led to a drop in the XRP/XAU pair to the equilibrium phase, and the subsequent recovery allowed XRP to bounce off this equilibrium. Moreover, these recent price movements also led to a similar drop to the 7-month MA and a subsequent bounce off this support.
Now, the XRP/XAU pair is trading well above both the equilibrium phase and the 7-month moving average. EGRAG then called attention to three bullish monthly candles witnessed by the XRP/XAU pair from November 2024 to January 2025, as XRP performed well against XAU within these months.
He identified a similar trend from March to May 2017, in which XRP recorded three bullish monthly candles against XAU. However, the extent of the growth from 2017 was much higher than what the market saw in the current cycle.
EGRAG pointed out that a red monthly candle also appeared after the three green candles from 2017, indicating that the market is replicating the 2017 movements. If this is true, then following this current red candle, XRP could surge against XAU in the coming months, mirroring the 2017 trend.
What a 1,000% Rise Could Mean for XRP Price
The market analyst stressed that in 2017, this pattern led to a 1,000% spike in the XRP/XAU pair. Currently, this pair trades for $893.9 million, attained by dividing XRP’s current market cap ($149.64 billion) by the current price of the PHLX gold and silver index ($167.39).
If a similar 1,000% spike occurs while the price of the index remains at $167.39, this would lead to a price of $9.83 billion for the XRP/XAU pair. Notably, such a value for the pair translates to an XRP market cap of $1.64 trillion, supposing the index trades at $167.39. At such a market cap, XRP price would sit at $28.5.
