- Gold gains 2% as DXY drops, even as ISM Services PMI signals a resilient US economy.
- Trump announces 100% tariffs on foreign films, says Powell won’t be removed early but urges rate cuts.
- Markets fully price in Fed hold on Wednesday; Powell’s press conference in focus for policy signals.
Gold (XAU/USD) prices jumped over 2%, or more than $70, on Monday as the Greenback was battered, although positive economic data from the United States (US) suggests the economy remains solid. XAU/USD trades at $3,321 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,237.
Market mood improved following a report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that service providers reassured the robustness of the US economy. The data hinted that prices are rising, ignited by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs
Over the weekend, Trump announced 100% duties on foreign-produced movies while saying that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should lower interest rates. He said he won’t remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.
Trump added that the US is meeting with many countries, including China, and that his main priority is reaching a deal with Beijing.
Meanwhile, traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The markets have fully priced in that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged, though they will be looking at Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Policymakers will not update their forecasts until the June meeting, which could provide some hints regarding monetary policy.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price unfazed by higher US Treasury bond yields
- Bullion prices remain underpinned, although US Treasury bond yields rise. The US 10-year Treasury note yield climbs four and a half basis points to 4.35%. At the same time, US real yields rallied five bps to 2.087%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.
- The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, up from 50.8 and beating expectations of 50.6, signaling a modest improvement in service sector activity.
- Notably, the Prices Paid sub-index surged to 65.1—its highest since February 2023—up from 60.9, indicating a reacceleration in input inflation pressures.
- Last week’s US Nonfarm Payroll figures for April exceeded estimates despite trailing March’s numbers, suggesting that the labor market remains solid. Worth noting that the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.2%, justifying the Fed’s stance of wait-and-see mode regarding monetary policy.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to challenge $3,350
Gold price uptrend resumed as today’s price action confirmed a ‘bullish harami’ two-candle chart pattern, indicating that bulls are gathering steam. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further confirmed the latter, as the RSI’s line aims upwards.
Therefore, traders will face key resistance levels like $3,350, followed by the $3,400 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be $3,450 and $3,500. Conversely, if sellers drag XAU/USD spot price below $3,300, look for a test of the May 1 low of $3,202, ahead of the April 3 high turned support at $3,167.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
