- Gold was bought on the dip on Wednesday, pushing prices higher.
- Headwinds remain large as a possible peace deal for Ukraine could get underway.
- Gold is back on track to test the all-time high at $2,942.
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is rallying after traders bought Wednesday’s dip and are driving prices back up to $2,920 at the time of writing on Thursday, while Bullion traders shrugging off the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January released on Wednesday. Traders are also ignoring the possibility of a peace deal formation with United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have spoken on the phone to outline a meeting soon to work out the broad strokes of a peace deal. Despite these quite substantial tail risks, Gold is rallying again, revealing a firm commitment from traders to keep residing in the safe haven asset.
Meanwhile, traders are digesting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s two testimonies at Capitol Hill before lawmakers. The release of January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Wednesday proved that the Fed has the right angle to keep rates steady for longer. US yields surged during the past two days, though with the pickup in Gold buying, the question will be whether US yields can keep rising in tandem with an uptick in Gold, which is a bit contradictory.
Daily digest market movers: Trump and Putin to decide
- US President Donald Trump said that Hamas must release all hostages by noon on Saturday or ‘all hell will break loose’, Reuters reports.
- Ukraine talks are spurring risk assets and the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, triggers a softer US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, which is beneficial for Gold.
- After the hotter-than-expected January CPI reading, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 64.3% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June, compared to 50.3% before the release. This suggests that the Fed would keep rates unchanged for longer to fight against persistent inflation.
Technical Analysis: Watch out for headline risk
Gold traders have used January’s CPI release as an entry point to buy more stakes in their beloved precious metal. However, a considerable tail risk could deliver quite a harsh and quick correction in Gold: the Ukraine peace talks. Once those peace talks start to take shape and might get support from Ukraine and Europe, a risk-on wave in markets would occur, with safe-haven outflows and Gold being punished.
The first support level on Thursday is $2,892, which is the Daily Pivot. From there, S1 support should come in at $2,875. The S2 support at $2,847 should act as a safeguard and avoid any further declines to the bigger $2,790 level (October 31, 2024, high).
On the upside, the R1 resistance at $2,920 is the first level that needs to be recovered, followed by the R2 resistance at $2,937. In case the rally continues, the $2,950 big figure will be tested for a break to the upside. Further up, the $3,000 psychological level could be next.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
