- Gold price retreats further from the record high amid a broad-based USD rally.
- Concerns over Trump’s new trade tariffs offer support to the XAU/USD pair.
- Bets for further policy easing by the Fed also help limit losses for the commodity.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trims a part of its heavy Asian session losses and currently trades around the $2,785 region, still down nearly 0.60% for the day. US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China lifts the US Dollar (USD) back closer to over a two-year high. This turns out to be a key factor that drags the commodity away from the all-time peak, around the $2,717 region touched on Friday.
That said, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of 2025, along with concerns about the potential economic fallout from Trump’s policies and the risk-off mood, offer support to the safe-haven Gold price. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bearish traders ahead of this week’s key US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today.
Gold price bulls turn cautious amid stronger USD; Trump’s new trade tariffs help limit losses
- The US Dollar (USD) spiked in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s move to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, and a 10% tariff on goods from China, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the Gold price.
- The US Commerce Department reported on Friday that inflation closed out 2024 on a strong note and consumer spending surged in December, pushing back expectations for more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index edged higher to 2.6% on a yearly basis in December from 2.4%, while the core gauge climbed 2.8%, matching November’s reading and consensus estimates.
- Moreover, investors remain worried that Trump’s new tariffs, if sustained, could significantly worsen inflation in the US and validate hawkish Fed expectations, further undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who pushed for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually, said that tariffs are inflationary and would continue to strengthen the US Dollar.
- Trump’s demand for lower interest rates, along with the prospects for further policy easing by the Fed, keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and could help limit any meaningful downside for the commodity.
- Furthermore, worries that Trump’s new tariffs could impact the global economy temper investors’ appetite for riskier assets and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets around the safe-haven XAU/USD.
- Traders now look to this week’s important US macro data scheduled for the beginning of a new month, starting with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, to determine the near-term trajectory for the precious metal.
Gold price technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside
From a technical perspective, the intraday slide finds some support near the $2,772 horizontal resistance breakpoint. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $2,755 region. The corrective decline could extend further towards the $2,740 intermediate support en route to the $2,725-2,720 area. This is followed by the $2,700 round figure, which if broken decisively could pave the way for deeper losses.
On the flip side, the $2,790-2,800 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the record high, around the $2,817 region. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the December monthly swing low.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
