- Gold price pulls back from the vicinity of the all-time peak, though the downside seems limited.
- Concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and a global trade war should lend support to the bullion.
- The underlying USD bearish sentiment might contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers in the vicinity of the $2,950 level during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the all-time peak touched the previous day. The intraday downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of worries that US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could trigger a global trade war. This might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion.
Furthermore, expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies would reignite inflation could further underpin the Gold price, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. Apart from this, geopolitical risks, doubt over US consumer health, and a weaker US Dollar (USD) should contribute to limiting losses for the precious metal. Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair seems poised to register gains for the eighth straight week and prolong a two-month-old uptrend.
Gold price bulls have the upper hand amid persistent worries about Trump’s tariff plans
- The uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs and their impact on the global economy lifted the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high, near the $2,955 region on Thursday.
- Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports since taking office on January 20, and also plans to announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner.
- Meanwhile, a softer-than-anticipated sales forecast from Walmart raised doubt over underlying economic strength amid worries that Trump’s policy moves would boost inflation and undermine consumer spending.
- Hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine seem to have faded in the wake of intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Oil pumping stations, which could further act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
- The US Dollar languishes near its lowest level since December 10 amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and might turn out to be another factor that could lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
- Fed officials, however, remain wary of future interest rate cuts amid still-sticky inflation, which, in turn, prompts some profit-taking around the non-yielding yellow metal amid slightly overbought conditions.
- St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned on Thursday that rising inflation expectations combined with the risk of stubborn stagflation could create a double challenge for the US economy.
- Earlier on Thursday, Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said that US inflation still has some way to go to reach the central bank’s 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy.
- In contrast, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic struck a more dovish tone and sees room for two more rate cuts this year, though noted that much depends on the evolving economic conditions.
- Traders now look forward to the flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health, which, in turn, should provide some impetus to the commodity heading into the weekend.
- Apart from this, the US economic docket – featuring the release of Existing Home Sales data and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – might contribute to producing short-term opportunities.
Gold price dip-buying near the $2,900 mark could limit the intraday corrective pullback
From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the 70 mark and warrants caution for bullish traders. That said, the recent breakout through the $2,928-2,930 horizontal barrier, representing the top boundary of a short-term trading range, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $2,900 mark. This is followed by the $2,880 support, which if broken could drag the XAU/USD to the $2,860-2,855 area en route to the $2,834 zone and eventually to the $2,800 mark.
Meanwhile, bullish traders might now wait for some near-term consolidation and some follow-through buying beyond the $2,950-2,955 region before placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the constructive setup supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
