- Gold price ticks higher on Tuesday and stalls its recent corrective slide from the all-time top.
- Bets for further rate cuts by the Fed and geopolitical risks continue to benefit the XAU/USD.
- Traders now look forward to the release of key US macro data for some meaningful impetus.
Gold price (XAU/USD) ended in the red for the second straight day on Monday amid optimism over China’s stimulus and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s relatively hawkish remarks. This, in turn, prompted some follow-through profit-taking after the recent runup to the all-time peak touched last week, though the corrective pullback stalls near the $2,625-2,624 support zone. Nevertheless, the precious metal registered its best quarterly gains since early 2020 and seems poised to prolong its well-established uptrend.
The incoming weaker US economic data, along with a continued slowdown in inflation, should allow the Fed to cut interest rates further. This, along with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a broader conflict, should continue to benefit the safe-haven Gold price. This, along with expectations that China’s stimulus measures will revive physical demand, assists the XAU/USD to attract some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and validates the near-term positive outlook ahead of the key US macro data.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might continue to attract haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East
- A slew of stimulus measures from China last week continued to boost investors’ appetite for riskier assets and drove some flows away from the traditional safe-haven Gold price for the second successive day on Monday.
- Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more hawkish tone on the economy and said that he sees two more 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year as a baseline if the economy performs as expected.
- The markets were quick to react and scaled back expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, prompting some follow-through profit-taking around the non-yielding yellow metal and contributing to the slide.
- Meanwhile, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of an oversized Fed rate cut by the end of this year, which, along with persistent geopolitical tensions, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Israeli forces have begun limited, localized, and targeted ground raids in Lebanon two days after they killed the head of the armed group Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike, threatening to worsen the Middle East crisis.
- Israel last week had rejected a proposal by the US and France, calling for a 21-day ceasefire on the Lebanon border to give time for a diplomatic settlement that would allow displaced civilians on both sides to return home.
- Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Jobs Opening – for some impetus ahead of other key macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month.
Technical Outlook: Gold price finds support near ascending trend-channel resistance breakpoint, around $2,625-2,624 area
From a technical perspective, the emergence of some buying near the $2,625-2,624 area reaffirms a support marked by a short-term ascending trend-channel resistance breakpoint and should act as a pivotal point. Some follow-through selling could drag the Gold price to the $2,600 mark, which if broken decisively could pave the way for some meaningful downside in the near term. The XAU/USD might then decline to the $2,560 intermediate support en route to the $2,535-2,530 region.
On the flip side, the $2,656-2,657 horizontal zone could offer some resistance ahead of the $2,672 area and the $2,685-2,686 region, or the record peak touched last week. This is closely followed by the $2,700 mark, which if conquered will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
