- Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction and remains confined in a narrow range.
- Expectations for a less dovish Fed and elevated US bond yields cap the non-yielding XAU/USD.
- Geopolitical risks lend support to the safe-haven precious metal ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to a one-week low touched the previous day. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). This, along with the underlying bullish tone around the equity markets, turn out to be key factors acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
Traders, however, opt to wait for more cues about the crucial FOMC decision for cues about the future rate-cut path and before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, the market focus will be on the accompanying policy statement, especially the so-called dot plot, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the post-meeting press conference. The outlook will drive the USD and the commodity. In the meantime, Tuesday’s release of the US Retail Sales could provide some impetus to the XAU/USD.
Gold price traders remain on the sidelines and keenly await the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday
- Data released on Monday showed that a big part of the US economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than three years. In fact, the S&P Global flash US Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December – the highest level in 38 months.
- Furthermore, the Composite PMI surged from 54.9 in November to 56.6, or a 33-month high. This overshadowed a fall in the flash US Manufacturing PMI to a three-month low of 48.3 in December and reaffirmed market expectations for a less dovish Federal Reserve.
- Investors seem convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies may exert upward pressure on inflation and force the Fed to pause its rate-cutting cycle. This lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to its highest level since November 22.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-points rate cut on Wednesday. This keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and offers support to the XAU/USD through the Asian session on Tuesday.
- The US hit North Korea and Russia on Monday with new sanctions that the Treasury Department said targeted Pyongyang’s financial activities and military support to Moscow. Israel is likely to respond to yet another ballistic missile attack by Yemen’s Houthis.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US monthly Retail Sales figures for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
Gold price bears need to wait for break below $2,644-$2,643 pivotal support before placing fresh bets
From a technical perspective, the $2,644-2,643 area, or a one-week low touched on Monday, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,625 region. This is closely followed by the monthly trough, around the $2,614 zone, and the $2,600 mark, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for some meaningful depreciating move for the Gold price.
On the flip side, the $2,664-2,666 region, or the overnight swing high, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier ahead of the $2,677 area. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $2,700 round figure. The subsequent move up could extend further towards the monthly swing high, around the $2,726 zone, above which the XAU/USD is likely to resume its upward trajectory.
