- Gold price trades with modest losses for the second straight day amid a positive risk tone.
- Geopolitical risks, bets for bigger Fed rate cuts and subdued USD demand to lend support.
- Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US consumer inflation data.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Wednesday and moves further away from the monthly peak retested earlier this week. A generally positive tone around the equity markets undermines demand for the safe-haven precious metal, though geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East help limit the downside.
Apart from this, expectations for deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by signs that inflation continues to moderate, act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed’s policy path. Hence, the market focus remains glued to the US consumer inflation figures.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders seem non-committed and look to US CPI for Fed rate cut cues
- Gold price trades with modest losses for the second straight day on Wednesday, albeit lacking follow-through and remains well within striking distance of the all-time high touched in July.
- A Hamas official said on Tuesday that the group had decided not to participate in the talks because its leaders do not think the Israeli government has been negotiating in good faith.
- Iranian officials told Reuters that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.
- The development increases the risk of a broader Middle East war and should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven metal amid bets for bigger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by 2.2% on a yearly basis in July, down from 2.7% in the previous month.
- On a monthly basis, the PPI increased 0.1%, while the core PPI (that excludes volatile food and energy components) missed estimates and remained flat during the reported month.
- The softer data provided more evidence of cooling inflation and opened the door for the Fed to begin its policy-easing cycle, triggering a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated on Tuesday that he’ll likely be ready to cut by the end of the year, though he wants to see a little more data before supporting the move.
- The US Dollar languishes near its lowest level in over a week and could further benefit the XAU/USD as the focus now shifts to the closely-watched US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- The headline CPI is anticipated to ease from the 3.0% YoY rate to 2.9% in July and the core CPI is seen coming in at 3.2% as compared to the 3.3% rise recorded in June.
- A weaker reading will further lift bets for a 50-basis points Fed rate cut in September and weigh on the Greenback, paving the way for further gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold price setup remains tilted in favor of bulls, might aim to retest the all-time peak
From a technical perspective, the recent rally from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor bullish traders. Hence, any meaningful slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. The Gold price seems poised to retest the record high, around the $2,483-2,484 area, and aim to conquer the $2,500 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will mark a fresh breakout through a broader trading range held over the past month or so and set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.
On the flip side, the $2,450-2,448 resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the Gold price could slide back to the weekly low, around the $2,424-2,423 region touched on Monday. The next relevant support is pegged near the $2,412-2,410 area ahead of the $2,400 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the said support levels might turn the XAU/USD vulnerable to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $2,378-2,379 region. Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA support, currently near the $2,358-2,357 area. This is closely followed by the late July low, around the $2,353-2,352 area, which if broken should pave the way for deeper losses.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
