- GBP/USD trades steady around 1.3110 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI was weaker-than-expected in August.
- Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged in September.
The GBP/USD pair flat lines near 1.3110 during the early European session on Wednesday. However, the risk-off sentiment ahead of the key US events could provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and drag the major pair lower. The US JOLTS Job Openings and Fed Beige Book are due later on Wednesday.
Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday revealed that the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 47.2 in August from 46.8 in July. This figure came in below the market consensus of 47.5.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which acts as a barometer for the market’s expectation of the Fed funds target rate, the chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting is 61%, while the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps are 39%.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that the “time has come” for monetary policy to adjust, signaling that the US central bank will likely start easing monetary policy at its upcoming meeting scheduled for September 17-18. The firmer Fed rate cut bets might weigh on the USD in the near term.
The US August employment data will be in the spotlight on Friday. Deutsche Bank economists suggested that a rise in Unemployment Rate could reinforce market expectations for a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed.
On the other hand, the cautious mood continues to underpin the Greenback for the time being, although the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to follow a shallow interest rate cut cycle this year compared to its peer central bankers. GBP/USD will likely be influenced by USD price dynamics, given there are no top-tier economic data releases from the UK.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
