A French national placed significant bets on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction market, speculating on Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. As highlighted by Lookonchain, Trump holds a 63.9% probability of winning, as per Polymarket data.
This investor’s move to buy $4.48 million in “Yes” shares reflects a strong belief in Trump’s victory, a position made eight hours after withdrawing $3 million USDC from the OKX crypto exchange. The sizable wagers placed on Trump’s win have fueled discussions on social media, raising questions about the influence of these large bets on prediction market dynamics.
According to Polymarket, #DonaldTrump has a 63.9% chance of winning the presidential election.
A whale withdrew 3M $USDC from #OKX to buy 4.48M “Yes” shares that #DonaldTrump will win the US election 8 hours ago. pic.twitter.com/leN82607dt
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 25, 2024
Rising Trump Odds and Speculation Over Market Influence
Trump’s recent surge in Polymarket’s odds reflects growing interest among high-stakes investors. Four accounts have invested heavily in Trump’s win, with a potential combined payout of around $46 million.
The rise in Trump’s probability has led some to question whether substantial investments, like the ones made by this French national, might be swaying market sentiment. However, Polymarket’s investigation has indicated that this trader’s actions were driven by personal conviction rather than any manipulative intent.
Polymarket’s inquiry into the French national’s betting activities revealed that the trader has considerable experience in financial markets, especially in crypto-based investments. According to Polymarket, the user made these decisions based on a personal interpretation of the U.S. presidential race.
Read also: Trump’s Election Odds Propel Crypto Market, Bitcoin Stays Stagnant
The platform also clarified that no manipulation attempts were detected. Additionally, Polymarket ensured that this bettor will notify the platform if they decide to open new accounts, aiming for transparency and market integrity.
The four accounts connected to these high-stakes bets, named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, remain closely monitored to ensure compliance with Polymarket’s standards.
While Polymarket declined to specify which of these accounts belong to the French national, it emphasized that prediction markets do not operate like opinion polls but instead measure the likelihood of specific outcomes based on real-time wagering data.
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